Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO NOSING INTO SOUTH TEXAS NEAR LAREDO. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS THE WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET WILL MOVE AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND WEAKEN. CAPE
VALUES THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE 2000-3000 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR 30-40 KTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10PM FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A SMALLER THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE LOOKING LIKE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND TRIGGER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP SURFACE MOISTURE HIGH. CLOCKWISE TURNING
THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH A LESSER TORNADO THREAT. BEST AREA WILL BE SOUTH
OF A GEORGETOWN TO DEL RIO LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WE ARE IN THE SPC DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  80  63  81  62 /  70  50  60  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  79  62  79  62 /  70  50  60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  79  63  81  62 /  60  60  60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  78  60  79  59 /  70  50  50  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  80  63  83  59 /  30  60  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  78  62  80  61 /  70  50  60  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  79  62  81  61 /  40  70  50  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  79  63  79  62 /  60  60  60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  80  66  79  64 /  70  70  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  79  64  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  80  64  80  63 /  50  70  60  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM
FREDERICKSBURG TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A DEL RIO TO
FREDERICKSBURG TO AUSTIN LINE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>