Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
634 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LINE OS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN KDRT BETWEEN 2330Z AND 01Z. FOR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE AROUND 04Z-05Z FOR KSAT/KSSF AND 05Z-06Z
FOR KAUS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE
FOR A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING 10Z-12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP 03Z-05Z THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 07Z-09Z. AFTER 17Z-19Z ALL
SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN
OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS WITH ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT CURRENTLY HAS TWO BOWING SEGMENTS. THE
FIRST HAS CROSSED INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND HAS ALREADY BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WIND GUST IN TERRELL COUNTY TO THE WEST.
THE SECOND BOWING SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN COAHUILA MEXICO
AND WILL ENTER MAVERICK COUNTY AROUND 00Z. SHEAR VALUES OF APPROX
40 KT AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE AHEAD OF THIS MORE
SOUTHERN BOWING SEGMENT...WHEREAS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHER AROUND
3000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER AROUND 30 KT WITH THE
NORTHERN BOWING SEGMENT. BASED ON THESE VALUES AND FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT...EXPECT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
UP TO 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN OTHER NON- BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE GUST
FRONT. TORNADO THREAT AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST BASED ON
ONGOING RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.

LH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED CHANNELS ARE SHOWING A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BRING A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAINS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AROUND 5 OR 6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVER
THAT SAME AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH LAPSE RATE
READINGS IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE. ALSO...AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR A COUPLE OF POINTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE SUGGEST ML
CAPES OF 2000 J/KM AND DCAPE OF 800 J/KM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WIND DOWNDRAFTS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND APPROACHES HIGHWAY 281(THIS INCLUDES THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA). STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA BETWEEN 9-11 PM THIS EVENING. AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN MAKERS. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. ALSO...DUE TO THE HIGH VALUES OF PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
(1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES)...CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A BREAK FROM
THE RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SETS UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAINS ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST HILL COUNTRY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD THIS FAR OUT THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  83  63  79  59 /  80  40  20  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  82  63  78  58 /  80  40  20  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  83  63  80  59 /  90  30  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  81  60  76  55 /  80  40  30  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  85  62  80  57 / 100  10  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  81  62  77  57 /  80  40  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  84  62  81  58 / 100  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  83  63  78  59 /  80  30  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  81  66  78  62 /  80  50  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  84  64  80  60 /  90  20  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  84  65  81  61 /  90  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...00
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-132345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
641 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
BEING THE MAIN THREAT...GENERALLY WEST OF I-35. SMALL HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE
SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

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