Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

514 
WWUS54 KEWX 090037
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

TXC271-323-465-090045-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-151009T0045Z/
MAVERICK TX-KINNEY TX-VAL VERDE TX-
737 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MAVERICK...SOUTHWESTERN KINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN VAL
VERDE COUNTIES...

AT 731 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOWN ON RADAR ARE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHWEST OF KINNEY COUNTY. THIS AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL MOVE THE NORTHWEAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL 
KINNEY COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. ALSO...VERY HEAVY 
RAIN IS FALLING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AN AREAL 
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 1015 PM.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEL RIO...BRACKETTVILLE...SPOFFORD...QUEMADO...DARLING...STANDART...
LAKE VIEW...VAL VERDE PARK...AMANDA...CIENEGAS TERRACE...LAUGHLIN
AFB...NORMANDY AND LAUGHLIN AFB AUX FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2951 10085 2953 10076 2945 10051 2927 10037
      2900 10034 2888 10059 2890 10063 2910 10067
      2917 10078 2920 10077 2926 10081 2928 10087
      2931 10089 2936 10100 2943 10102 2946 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 217DEG 19KT 2939 10072 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

977 
WWUS54 KEWX 090045
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

TXC271-323-465-090050-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-151009T0045Z/
MAVERICK TX-KINNEY TX-VAL VERDE TX-
745 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MAVERICK...
SOUTHWESTERN KINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 745 PM CDT...
                
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE 
ISSUED SHORTLY.

LAT...LON 2951 10085 2953 10076 2945 10051 2927 10037
      2900 10034 2888 10059 2890 10063 2910 10067
      2917 10078 2920 10077 2926 10081 2928 10087
      2931 10089 2936 10100 2943 10102 2946 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 215DEG 24KT 2939 10072 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN PLATEAU. THERE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE A STARK DROP OFF IN COVERAGE EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS
TO PEARSALL.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CELLS
JUST WEST AND NORTH OF VAL VERDE COUNTY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM 850MB TO 250MB...AND
STRONG LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH A PREDOMINANTLY
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION RESULTING IN TRAINING. RAIN RATES OF 2+
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR BUT AT THEIR CURRENT
MOTION...THESE RATES COULD EXIST OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR 2 OR 3
HOURS AND RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING 4-6
INCHES...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FARTHER
EAST TO ROCKSPRINGS SOUTHWARD TO EAGLE PASS...SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL 1-2 INCHES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STARK DROP OFF AS YOU
MOVE FARTHER EAST TO THE I35 CORRIDOR.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW...

THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ALIGN WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND FOCUS THE QPF AMOUNTS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
BEGINNING A WESTWARD RETROGRADE. IT WILL ALSO SIMULTANEOUS ORIENT
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND BEGIN DECREASING THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO WANE A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THAT POINT...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED...UPPER FLOW ORIENTED
DIFFERENTLY AND WEAKER...AND THE STRONGER H5 VORTICITY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO. BY DAYBREAK
TOMORROW...THE EXPECTATION IS RAIN CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER AND MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE THAN HEAVY.

AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL SERVE TO CUT OFF THE GULF
MOISTURE FLUX FEEDING THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM BY SHIFTING LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY 00Z AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER SET UP TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH WESTWARD
FURTHER AND BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN FOCUS AS SOME SIMILAR LONG RANGE MODEL
OUTCOMES ARE BEING SEEN WITH THE LATEST RUNS.

FOR NOW...HAD TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MID WEEK POP
CHANCES AS THE MOISTURE BEING GENERATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS
SUSPECT AT THIS TIME. THIS SEEMED TO BE AGREED UPON BY NEIGHBORS
AS WELL. MORE DETAILS WILL LIKELY COME WITH THIS FEATURE TOMORROW
ONCE THE CURRENT SYSTEM BEGINS CLEARING OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  90  69  91  68 /  20  20  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  90  66  91  64 /  20  20  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  90  69  93  67 /  20  20  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  88  65  89  66 /  20  20  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  84  69  89  68 /  80  60  20  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  89  65  90  65 /  20  20  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  89  68  91  66 /  50  50  10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  89  68  91  66 /  20  20  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  90  69  91  67 /  20  20  10  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  89  70  91  69 /  30  40  -   -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  90  70  93  69 /  30  50  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
319 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-092030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
319 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED HEAVIER POCKETS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO EAGLE PASS LINE
WHERE TRAINING CELLS MAY DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY IN VAL VERDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS AND KINNEY
COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WOULD BE APPRECIATED IN THE WESTERN PLATEAU AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE..

TB3