Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

323 
WGUS64 KEWX 172010
FFAEWX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THEY
RECEIVED UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THURSDAY. NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SAME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 4 INCHES. HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

TXZ193-194-208-209-223>225-180415-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150418T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BASTROP-LEE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LOCKHART...
LA GRANGE...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES... 
  LAVACA AND LEE. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY

* AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 
  4 INCHES FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH 
  FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND 
  URBAN AREAS NORMALLY SUBJECT TO FLOODING. RECENT RAINFALL EAST 
  OF INTERSTATE 35 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS LED TO SATURATED 
  SOILS WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH LESS 
  RAINFALL THAN USUAL...POSING AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

441 
WGUS64 KEWX 180541
FFAEWX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TXZ193-194-208-209-223>225-180645-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150418T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BASTROP-LEE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LOCKHART...
LA GRANGE...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
1241 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
EXPIRE AT 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST EPIDOSE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR REGION/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES FROM THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK OLD BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ALL
THIS IS HAPPENING...A SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET WILL INTERACT WITH
THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ML
CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH DCAPE OF 800 TO 900 J/KG FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
OUR BEST GUESS OR TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO AFFECT THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
METROPOLITAN AREAS IS FROM 4 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING. THEN...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO
GRANDE TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 37. ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD GET UP TO 4
INCHES. SINCE SOME OF THESE PLACES ALREADY SAW UP TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES STARTING AT 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 1
AM SATURDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BUT NOT FOR
LONG.

OUR SECOND ROUND FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ABOVE MENTIONED PUSHES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. RAIN CHANCES COME BACK TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS SHORT WAVES
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  63  80  63  87 /  70  40  40  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  62  79  61  86 /  70  50  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  63  79  62  86 /  70  60  40  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  61  78  60  85 /  70  30  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  63  83  59  91 /  50  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  62  78  61  86 /  70  40  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  62  81  61  88 /  70  30  40  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  62  79  62  86 /  70  60  40  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   80  65  79  64  86 /  70  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  64  81  63  87 /  70  40  40  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  64  81  63  88 /  70  40  40  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-180845-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
344 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A DEL RIO TO FREDERICKSBURG TO
AUSTIN LINE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 4 INCHES.
HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO LOCKHART TO CUERO
LINE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.