Flash Flood Warning 179, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

349 
WGUS74 KEWX 010219
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TXC029-010228-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FF.W.0179.000000T0000Z-151101T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEXAR TX-
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAN ANTONIO AREA HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LAT...LON 2964 9835 2926 9831 2914 9843 2922 9865
      2964 9864

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
723 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPWARD FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND DRIFTING TO
THE EAST. AS A RESULT...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND
INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE WITH
LIGHTNING IN SHOWERS IN THE UPPER LOW. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
KAUS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

UPDATE...
RADARS SHOW PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UPWARD FORCING OF MOIST
MID LEVEL AIRMASS. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FIVE TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW
OVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD WEST TEXAS. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHARPER...SLOWER TROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  75  54  81  55 /  20  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  76  50  80  51 /  20  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  78  52  82  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  73  51  79  53 /  20  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  80  52  84  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  73  51  78  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  79  49  84  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  76  52  80  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  75  55  79  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  78  53  82  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  79  53  84  54 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-011615-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1101 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODED ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE SO MANY AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INUNDATED WITH WATER THROUGH TONIGHT. RIVER RISES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GUADALUPE...SAN ANTONIO...CIBOLO
CREEK...COLORADO RIVER BASINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLOOD AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE RISES WILL AFFECT BOTH ROADS AND SOME HOMES NEAR THE
FLOODED RIVERS AND CREEKS.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.