Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
400 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE
WEST. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE ISOLATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS NEAR STRONGER STORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

STARTING TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO FURTHER
TO THE WEST INTO ARIZONA. THE COMBINATION OF REDUCED MOISTURE AND
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE UNDER A STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH WILL BE A DRY
FLOW FOR A CHANGE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MOUNTAIN TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL STILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 100 DEGREE DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE HIGH
CIRCULATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RISE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MORE ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN COVERAGE PATTERN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 11/00Z-12/00Z...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS WILL RE-DIRECT CIRCULATION OF SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST OVER OUR AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONCENTRATE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AGAIN TONIGHT...WHERE ISOLD MTN TSRA/WND VRB20G35KT/CIGS 040-
060/LCL VIS 1-3SM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. LOOK FOR SCATTERED
LOWLAND TSRA/WND VRB30G45KT/CIGS 080-100/LCL VIS 1-3SM THRU 06Z OVER
THIS AREA. ISOLATED MTN AND LOWLAND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED GENERALLY
EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 06Z.   SKY OUTSIDE STORMS FEW-SCT060-100
SCT 140-180 LYRD SCT-BKN 300-350.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEALTHY PLUME OF MONSOON DRIVEN MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.  HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER WESTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE SUB TROPICAL STREAM TO
CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA BY MID WEEK...BRINGING DRIER
AND HOTTER WEATHER BACK INTO THE PICTURE.  REDUCED STORM CHANCES FOR
ALL AREAS...WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS AND FREQUENCY OF CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES...ARE THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE CAN EXPECT AS A
RESULT. LOOK FOR LOWLAND MAX TEMPS UN THE UPPER 90S AND MOUNTAIN
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.  MIN RH TUESDAY WILL
DROP AS MUCH AS 10 PERCENT IN THE BOOTHEEL, FROM TODAYS READINGS
THERE. UP TO A 5% DROP IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
TUESDAY.  READINGS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEENS WEDNESDAY IN A FEW
LOWLAND SPOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  97  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           71  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  93  69  93 /  40   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              70  95  69  95 /  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              55  74  55  74 /  50  10   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  93  69  94 /  40   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             64  86  63  86 /  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  71  94  70  94 /  40   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  95  69  96 /  30   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  97  73  96 /  30   0   0   0
DELL CITY               72  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            72  97  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  92  70  91 /  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  72  97  71  96 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  95  72  95 /  30   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  95  70  95 /  30   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  94  68  95 /  40   0   0   0
HATCH                   68  95  68  95 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  95  70  94 /  40   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  95  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 59  82  59  82 /  40  10   0   0
MESCALERO               58  83  59  82 /  50  10   0  10
TIMBERON                61  82  60  82 /  40  10   0  10
WINSTON                 60  84  61  84 /  50  20   0  10
HILLSBORO               65  91  64  91 /  40   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  93  68  93 /  40   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            59  86  58  86 /  50  20   0  10
HURLEY                  65  89  65  89 /  40  10   0   0
CLIFF                   65  93  65  93 /  30  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              61  91  60  92 /  30  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 66  89  64  89 /  40   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  69  95  67  96 /  40   0   0   0
HACHITA                 69  95  68  95 /  40   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  92  66  93 /  40   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  89  65  89 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1112 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-111715-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1112 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF DEMING AND IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. STORM DISTRIBUTION WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAINS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE.

LUNDEEN

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