Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
339 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
STORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO CUT
OFF THE MOISTURE FEED. THE RESULT WILL BE HOTTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH 100 DEGREE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS. STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST A BIT AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO FEED BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON PLUME SETTLES BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ON THE RISE FOR THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS VEERING THE
WINDS ALOFT BACK TO WESTERLY WHICH IS ADVECTING THE FOCUS OF THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BACK EAST OVER OUR AREA AS IT DRIES OUT
WEST AND CENTRAL AZ. FOR OUR AREA THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...AND A BIT MORE UNIFORM FOR MONDAY. AM
PW'S WERE UP TODAY BACK OVER AN INCH AFTER DROPPING BELOW LAST
NIGHT. PROG SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TODAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PW'S FOR THIS EVENING. THE RESULTS
ARE MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST ZONES THIS EVE/NIGHT.

MONDAY THE MOIST PLUME CONTINUES TO BEND EAST OVER THE REGION WITH
INCREASING PW'S OVER THE EAST ZONES FOR A MORE UNIFORM MOISTURE
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE FORECAST WE BROADEN THE POPS EAST
AND MAKE THEM MORE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OF COURSE. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S
LOWLANDS WITH PM CLOUDS AND STORMS MODERATING THE HEATING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE SEE A PATTERN SHIFT THAT RESULTS IN
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER HIGH IS PROGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST. WE COME UNDER A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRAW IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
OVER THE AREA. THE LOWLANDS RETAIN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH KEEPS
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION OFF THE
TEXAS GULF. FOR THE LOWLANDS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOWLAND STORMS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED STORMS...LOWLANDS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES. THE ELEMENT THAT
WILL BECOME A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THE POPULOUS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE INCREASING HEAT WITH LOWLANDS LIKELY SEEING A STRING OF
DAYS WITH 100 DEGREE LOWLAND MAX TEMPS.

NEXT WE MOVE TO THE LAST SEGMENT OF THIS PACKAGE WHERE THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST AND ALLOWS A RETURN OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND WE RAISE
POPS AND LOWER TEMPS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASES IN MOISTURE...
CLOUDS...AND STORMS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL CONDITIONS: FEW-
SCT070-090 SCT100- 120 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLD VRB25G37KT 4SM -TSRA
BKN060CB BKN100 OVC200 18Z-06Z. MAX TOPS 400-450. SFC WINDS 00-18Z
WSW 5-10KTS AFT 18Z: NW 5-10KTS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGHLAND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE MORE WESTWARD
TO ARIZONA BRINGING A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WARM AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THUS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD SEE ALMOST ALL CONVECTION
CONFINED OVER AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  97  73 100 /  20  30  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  95  69  98 /  20  40  30  10
LAS CRUCES              67  94  67  98 /  30  20  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  95  69 100 /  30  30  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  73  55  78 /  40  40  40  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  92  68  98 /  40  20  20   0
SILVER CITY             61  85  62  92 /  40  30  20   0
DEMING                  68  94  68 100 /  30  20  20   0
LORDSBURG               66  93  67  99 /  40  10  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  72 101 /  20  30  30   0
DELL CITY               70  97  70 102 /  20  40  40  10
FORT HANCOCK            71  98  70 102 /  20  40  30   0
LOMA LINDA              69  92  69  96 /  20  30  30   0
FABENS                  71  98  70 102 /  20  30  30   0
SANTA TERESA            70  96  70 100 /  20  30  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  94  70 100 /  30  20  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  94  67  99 /  30  10  30   0
HATCH                   66  95  67 101 /  30  10  20   0
COLUMBUS                69  93  68  99 /  30  20  20   0
OROGRANDE               70  96  70  99 /  30  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 57  82  59  87 /  40  40  40  10
MESCALERO               56  82  57  87 /  40  40  40  10
TIMBERON                58  82  59  87 /  40  40  40  10
WINSTON                 58  83  59  90 /  50  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               63  91  64  97 /  40  30  30   0
SPACEPORT               67  93  67  98 /  30  10  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  85  57  91 /  50  40  30  10
HURLEY                  62  88  63  94 /  40  30  20   0
CLIFF                   62  91  64  97 /  40  30  20   0
MULE CREEK              59  90  61  96 /  40  30  20   0
FAYWOOD                 63  89  64  95 /  40  30  30   0
ANIMAS                  66  92  67  98 /  40  30  20   0
HACHITA                 67  93  67  99 /  30  20  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  89  65  94 /  30  30  30  10
CLOVERDALE              63  87  64  92 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/20