Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
401 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL BRING
WARMER DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AROUND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OR FOR AREAS WEST OF DEMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER CALIFORNIA
TODAY WHILE DESERT HEAT LOW AT THE SURFACE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA. TO THE EAST EXPECT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES MOSTLY AROUND 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S TODAY AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT THREAT OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
MEANS A FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN DROP HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR JULY MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 30 TO 40 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN MID LEVEL ROTATION. CONSEQUENTLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS.

ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN EXPANDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ATTENDANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMER DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL THUS ALSO SPREAD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS TENDING TO STABILIZE FROM
EAST TO WEST. THUS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EAST TO WEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MOST STORMS OCCURRING AROUND THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF A DEMING-T OR C LINE.

RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ON AN EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO OF NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
SEASONABLY HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF DEMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 11/12Z-12/12Z.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM 18Z-
06Z. HEAVY RAINS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL OCCUR WITH A
FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SCT-BKN050 WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THIS WILL BRING
WARMER DRIER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AROUND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OR FOR AREAS WEST OF DEMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  72  94  73 /  40  50  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           89  67  91  67 /  50  50  20   0
LAS CRUCES              89  67  92  69 /  40  50  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              88  67  92  68 /  50  50  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              68  52  71  54 /  60  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   86  65  89  68 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             80  61  83  63 /  40  40  30  50
DEMING                  88  66  92  68 /  40  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               90  65  93  67 /  30  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  73  95  73 /  40  50  20   0
DELL CITY               90  67  93  67 /  50  40  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            92  70  94  70 /  50  50  20   0
LOMA LINDA              87  68  89  68 /  50  50  20   0
FABENS                  92  70  95  70 /  40  50  20   0
SANTA TERESA            90  70  93  71 /  40  50  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          89  69  92  69 /  40  50  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           88  66  91  67 /  40  50  20  20
HATCH                   89  65  91  67 /  40  50  20  20
COLUMBUS                88  67  92  69 /  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               89  70  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
MAYHILL                 76  56  79  57 /  60  60  50  40
MESCALERO               77  56  81  57 /  60  60  50  40
TIMBERON                77  56  79  57 /  60  60  50  40
WINSTON                 80  58  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               87  62  89  65 /  40  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               87  65  89  68 /  40  50  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            80  57  83  60 /  50  50  50  50
HURLEY                  83  62  86  64 /  40  40  30  40
CLIFF                   86  63  91  65 /  30  40  40  50
MULE CREEK              86  60  89  64 /  30  30  40  50
FAYWOOD                 83  63  87  64 /  40  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  90  66  93  68 /  30  30  40  40
HACHITA                 89  65  93  67 /  40  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          87  65  91  66 /  30  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              85  64  89  65 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1112 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

NMZ401-402-404-101800-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
1112 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND
NORTHWESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES...

AT 1112 AM MDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 5 MILES SOUTH OF VIRDEN...
OR 14 MILES WEST OF REDROCK. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REDROCK...VIRDEN...MANGAS SPRINGS AND BILL EVANS LAKE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3277 10905 3296 10848 3265 10837 3240 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 180DEG 0KT 3261 10898

TRIPOLI