Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
106 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND WILL BRING
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL COME TO AN END
THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW STARTING TO CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN BAJA AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CWA. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH IS
GIVING US CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. INITIAL DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO SWRN NM AND ACTIVITY ALREADY PICKING UP
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS AND STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION AROUND
25-30KTS. SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KELP BY 00Z AND
ENHANCE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH...SOUTHERN
DONA ANA AND OTERO COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS. LCL HEIGHTS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH FOR
TORNADO THREAT...BUT NEAR SURFACE LOW WITH OTHER PARAMETERS IN
PLACE CANNOT RULE ONE OUT.

UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SE AZ TOMORROW WITH SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING TO
EASTERN HALF OF CWA. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DECREASES TOMORROW...BUT
SPEED SHEAR STILL ABUNDANT. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LARGE
EITHER TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS UNLESS
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM TODAYS CONVECTION LIMITS WARMING. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN
THE EVENING THERE. STORM MOTION WILL STILL BE FAST AND AREA WILL
BE ON EDGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TOMORROW TO
GET MUCH ABOVE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 50S AND 60S
MOUNTAINS.

LOW STARTS TO OPEN UP THURSDAY AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR. THERE WILL STILL BE A POCKET
OF COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER SRN NM AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES AREA...ANOTHER ONE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO KEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL BRING +TSRAGS/ISOLD
+TSRAGR TO ALL TERMINALS THROGH THE PD. WND VRB35G55KT/LCL VIS 1-2
SM WITH STORMS. LCL CIGS 010-030 MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...040-060
LOWLANDS. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE 210/25-30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. FEATURE
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY STARTING THURSDAY...THEN ALL AREAS FRIDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...FACTORS FAVORING SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE POTANTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK.  EXPECT
EXCELLENT VENT RATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STONG WINDS
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW.  FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES ARE ON TAP THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  76  54  73 /  70  60  60  20
SIERRA BLANCA           56  71  52  73 /  60  60  80  30
LAS CRUCES              53  73  48  70 /  60  60  60  20
ALAMOGORDO              54  73  50  71 /  70  70  70  30
CLOUDCROFT              42  52  37  51 /  80  80  90  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  69  48  68 /  60  60  60  30
SILVER CITY             50  62  43  63 /  60  60  60  30
DEMING                  50  70  47  70 /  50  60  60  20
LORDSBURG               51  70  45  70 /  50  50  50  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      60  75  54  73 /  70  60  60  30
DELL CITY               56  76  53  74 /  70  60  80  30
FORT HANCOCK            58  77  54  76 /  60  60  80  20
LOMA LINDA              57  70  52  68 /  70  60  80  20
FABENS                  58  76  53  74 /  70  60  60  20
SANTA TERESA            57  73  51  72 /  70  60  60  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  73  51  70 /  70  70  70  30
JORNADA RANGE           53  71  45  70 /  60  60  60  30
HATCH                   54  72  46  70 /  60  60  60  20
COLUMBUS                56  71  49  71 /  50  50  50  20
OROGRANDE               56  73  52  71 /  70  70  70  20
MAYHILL                 46  60  41  60 /  80  70  80  30
MESCALERO               46  61  40  61 /  80  80  80  30
TIMBERON                49  57  43  59 /  80  80  80  40
WINSTON                 44  61  41  61 /  60  60  60  30
HILLSBORO               45  66  44  68 /  70  60  60  30
SPACEPORT               49  70  45  70 /  60  60  60  20
LAKE ROBERTS            42  61  35  64 /  70  70  70  30
HURLEY                  48  65  42  66 /  60  60  60  20
CLIFF                   44  67  38  69 /  60  60  60  20
MULE CREEK              41  63  36  67 /  60  50  50  20
FAYWOOD                 48  64  44  66 /  60  60  60  20
ANIMAS                  50  71  46  71 /  50  50  50  20
HACHITA                 51  72  46  71 /  50  50  50  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  71  45  70 /  50  50  50  10
CLOVERDALE              48  67  45  68 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
110 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-211230-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
110 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 TO 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HAIL
PLUGS UP STORM DRAINS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...SIERRA AND GRANT COUNTIES. ANOTHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OTERO...EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THROUGH
9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THIS OFFICE WITH
REPORTS.

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1151 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

NMZ401>407-201830-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL NM-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL NM-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY NM-
1151 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HIDALGO...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT AND WESTERN LUNA COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT...

AT 1151 AM MDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ON RADAR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLAYAS...OR 21 MILES EAST OF ANIMAS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEMING...
LORDSBURG...
ANIMAS...
HACHITA...
SUNSHINE...
HERMANAS...
WHITE SIGNAL...
WINDMILL...
GAGE...
SEPAR...
PLAYAS...
SHAKESPEARE...
BIG HATCHET REFUGE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3282 10855 3237 10757 3178 10796 3178 10821
      3141 10821 3138 10823 3175 10901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 208DEG 46KT 3188 10845

TRIPOLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1209 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

NMZ415-416-201900-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET NM-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET NM-
1209 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM MDT...

AT 1209 PM MDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ON RADAR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APACHE SUMMIT...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
MESCALERO...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL OTERO
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 10532 3303 10545 3312 10570 3331 10565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 197DEG 20KT 3318 10557

TRIPOLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1230 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

NMZ401>405-407-201915-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL NM-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY NM-
1230 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HIDALGO...SOUTH CENTRAL
GRANT AND WESTERN LUNA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

AT 1228 PM MDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ON RADAR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF HIDALGO...GRANT AND LUNA COUNTY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LORDSBURG...
HACHITA...
SUNSHINE...
HERMANAS...
WHITE SIGNAL...
SEPAR...
TYRONE...
SHAKESPEARE...
GAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3281 10837 3204 10768 3178 10797 3178 10821
      3156 10821 3243 10896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 240DEG 49KT 3206 10833

ROGASH

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