Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
432 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST. UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED...WITH THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION OVER
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY CHASING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP SHORT. UPPER
HIGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS SLOWLY MIGRATING WEST. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
NOW FROM ABOUT EL PASO WEST TO MOST OF ARIZONA. THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND
DESTABILIZES THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEMING
NORTH AND WEST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BIG KEY WILL
BE HOW FAST CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND IF LARGE AREA OF
RAIN AROUND EL PASO AND DONA ANA COUNTIES WILL LEAVE COOL STABLE
PATCH HINDERING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TPW PRODUCT
SHOWING PW'S AROUND 1.5 INCHES EAST TO 1.2 INCHES WEST. SO FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT.

UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND BOTH GFS/ECMWF PARK IT
THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD CUT THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOSTLY ISOLATED AND OVER MOUNTAINS AND DEMING WEST. FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS PW'S TO AROUND 1.0-1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BUT SOMEWHAT
SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS KEEPS THE HIGH STATIONARY OVER NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH CENTER TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN
FLUSHES MUCH OF OUR MOISTURE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. GFS LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z.
AIR MASS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE. SKY AND WX: P6SM
SCT060-100 BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT TSTM ACTIVITY 3-5SM TSRA
BKN070. WINDS VRB 25G40 KTS. AFT 18Z MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AREA FROM DEMING NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS PREVAILS IN THE
MONSOON FLOW FROM THE THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIMITING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND DEMING
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL AFTER FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  73  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           94  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  69  95  69 /  10  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              95  66  94  68 /  30  20   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              70  48  71  51 /  50  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  68  92  70 /  20  20   0  10
SILVER CITY             85  64  87  65 /  40  30  20  20
DEMING                  94  69  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
LORDSBURG               93  67  94  69 /  30  30  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  72  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
DELL CITY               94  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  71  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              94  71  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
FABENS                  96  70  98  73 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  70  96  72 /  10  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          95  69  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           94  67  94  69 /  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   94  67  94  69 /  20  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                94  70  94  71 /  20  20  10   0
OROGRANDE               95  70  95  71 /  20  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 78  55  81  57 /  50  30  30  20
MESCALERO               79  54  81  56 /  50  30  30  20
TIMBERON                79  55  81  58 /  50  30  30  10
WINSTON                 83  59  84  59 /  60  40  40  30
HILLSBORO               92  65  92  67 /  30  30  20  10
SPACEPORT               92  67  92  69 /  20  20   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            84  58  85  59 /  60  40  40  30
HURLEY                  89  65  89  66 /  30  30  20  20
CLIFF                   89  60  92  61 /  50  40  10  30
MULE CREEK              90  59  91  60 /  60  40  30  30
FAYWOOD                 90  66  89  67 /  30  30  20  10
ANIMAS                  92  67  94  69 /  30  30  10  20
HACHITA                 92  68  93  68 /  30  30  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  90  67 /  20  30  10  20
CLOVERDALE              89  67  89  68 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1131 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NMZ401>403-408-414>416-301745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
1131 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL
FLOODING DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY BECOMING MORE SPOTTY AND ISOLATED
FROM FRIDAY ON. SOME HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL STILL ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NMZ404>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-301745-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-OTERO MESA-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1131 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLOODING DUE
TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF
MAINLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY ON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HEFNER