Winter Weather Advisory 4, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
443 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SMALL HAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
RIDGING OVERHEAD MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PATCHY FOG WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT OF INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND OTHER PARTS OF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
BLUE SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS THAT
REMAINED CLOUDY YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF PATTERN CHANGE IN THE
FORM OF A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGING LITTLE
TO NO RAIN TO THE REGION. AT MOST, IT MAY SQUEEZE SOME DRIZZLE OUT
OF COASTAL CLOUDS. RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS TROUGH
ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLDER, MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE QPF FOR THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING A BIT WITH THE 00Z RUN SHOWING THE
HIGHEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY
WITH THE 06Z RUN SETTLING AT AROUND 1/2 INCH. THE RFC QPF WAS A
LITTLE HIGH COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES SO HAVE TRENDED
LOWER TO BETTER COORDINATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY FALL ON
TUESDAY AS THE COLD SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO 1500 TO 2000 FT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PROJECTED
TO BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE,
AND NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY. NEVERTHELESS, TRAVELERS NEED TO PAY
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. ONE THING THAT WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST WAS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DON'T LOOK GREAT BUT HIGH TOTAL
TOTALS AROUND 55 AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE SMALL HAIL A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER SHOWERS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS
AND ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PUT AN END TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH AT LEAST FROST
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE...ALTHO
OBSERVATION OF THE EXTENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE BECAUSE OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. THIS
CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVENT ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE
FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THE EXISTING CLOUD/FOG BANK WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OFF THE COAST. VISIBILITIES AT THESE SITES HAVE COME UP TO
NEARLY UNRESTRICTED DURING THE PAST HOUR...BUT VISIBILITIES AT THE
WX OFFICE ARE STILL AROUND 1/2SM. MORE FOG MAY ADVECT INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WHEN ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE. OVERALL...
A HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST. HAVE IMPROVED THE FORECAST AT
KUKI...KEEPING THEM VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AT ALL SITES. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU MON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. A BRIEF SHIFT
TO S WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF CAPE MENDOCINO BUT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT... WINDS WILL VEER TO NW TO N AND RAPIDLY INCREASE. GALES
ARE LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT...TO AS HIGH AS 18 TO 20 FT WELL OFFSHORE LATE TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A MARINE WX STATEMENT WAS ISSUED BY THE EVENING SHIFT
FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND THIS WILL BE CONTINUED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

&&

.COASTAL...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING THRU MID-WEEK WITH
HIGHEST TIDES REACHING 8.4 FT WED MORNING. TIDAL ANOMALIES WERE
RUNNING NEAR ZERO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...BUT THEY HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR .5 FT AT N SPIT. IF THIS CONTINUES...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
MINOR...MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING AROUND PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT BAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. SURF WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING THRU THE DAY TUE WITH HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 20 FT POSSIBLE
ALONG NW FACING BEACHES TUE EVENING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

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