Special Weather Statement, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
BROUGHT SOME DECENT RAIN TO THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MAINLY
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS
AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE ON THE NAM SO SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET TONIGHT EXCEPT IN TRINITY COUNTY WHERE SNOW LEVELS
ARE AROUND 2500. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES. SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
MORNING LEAVING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TRINITY
COUNTY...POSSIBLY AS LOW AT 1500 OR 2000 FEET. WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMING IN OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME COLD AIR THAT GETS TRAPPED
IN THE VALLEY AROUND WEAVERVILLE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS LOW AS
1500 FEET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW LOW SNOW LEVELS
WILL STAY. SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 T 7 INCHES AS LOW
AS 2500 FEET. SUNDAY AFTERNOON RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WITH A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
IS MAINLY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
IT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE RAIN STARTING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
WARM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE OVER 7000 FEET ONCE ANY RESIDUAL COLD
AIR GETS SCOURED OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS
WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST FACING TERRAIN. THIS
WILL PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY. UP TO 10 INCHES IN POSSIBLE IN THE
MOST FAVORED TERRAIN. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF FOR MENDOCINO AND
TRINITY COUNTY. CURRENTLY THE BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE ON THE HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTY BORDER FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THIS IS ONE OF
THE MOST LIKELY THINGS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR RIVER INFORMATION SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION. MKK

.LONG RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WITH
STEADY MODERATE RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY EASE UP ACROSS THE AREA BY TUE
NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN. THE GEM AND ECWMF CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH LESS
RAIN...WITH A TENTH TO HALF AN INCH. THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING MUCH
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM...AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL. THE MAIN
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EVEN
THOUGH THE RAINFALL WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THE MOIST ZONAL FLOW SHOULD START TO BUCKLE AND AMPLIFY TOWARD THE
MID/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A COLD AND VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY
TILTED DIFFLUENT TROUGH ALOFT COMES BARRELLING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND EMCWF WERE SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT
WITH SLIGHT PHASE AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES. IT DOES LOOK COOL AND
UNSETTLED WED THROUGH THU FOR NORCAL...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY WINDING DOWN ON FRI. FOR FRI LEANED TOWARD CLIMO PRECIP
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
GENERATE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE COAST.
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. BRIEF FOG AT UKIAH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY PERTURB THE FOG.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SAT AS WNW SWELL BUILDS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUN GENERATING ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RAPID
RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SMALL STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CURRENT MODELS SHOWING THE PRECIP FOCUSED ON HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS IN
THESE AREAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW MOST RIVERS IN THIS AREA
GETTING TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE IF SOMETHING SHIFTS SLIGHTLY. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

CAZ001-002-192330-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-
330 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BRING SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ004-192330-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
330 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 4 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW 2000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN
TRINITY COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BRING SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-192330-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
330 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 4 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW 2000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN
TRINITY COUNTY WITH SNOW LEVELS TO 2500 FEET ON HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BRING SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ076-192330-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
330 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3500 FEET TONIGHT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
229 PM PST FRI DEC 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     SNOW             3 WSW TRINITY CENTER    40.98N 122.75W
12/18/2015  M3.0 INCH        TRINITY            CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. CURRENTLY SNOWING.

&&

RUEHL

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