Tornado Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

An active afternoon and evening is starting to shape up for strong
to severe thunderstorms that should affect most of the area. At this
time we have a tornado watch out until 02z where supercells are
expected to develop ahead of a surface low and along a warm front
across our far northwestern counties. Shear and instability
parameters favor very large hail and a possible tornado or two. The
surface low should track across southern IA this evening with an
attended cold front moving into the CWA from the northwest.
Additional storms are anticipated to develop along the cold front and
those too are expected to be strong to severe. Would not be surprised
to see a severe watch issued to handle those storms. Latest NPW,
especially the HRRR, bring the line of storms into the KC Metro area
between 6 to 9 pm. Large hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy
rain will be the concerns with the line. Also, we have many of our
northern counties under a flash flood watch through 12z tomorrow
given the saturated soils and the expected convection. Lastly a
portion of a MCS may work in from the southwest very late tonight
along and north of the cold front. At this time, if the MCS develops,
our southeast counties would get brushed by it.

The rest of the forecast period will remain unsettled and on the wet
side of things as multiple disturbances track across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

In the near term, clearing skies will develop along with increasing
southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Later this
afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and
move through the terminals beginning early this evening. Current
thinking is there may be several rounds or clusters of storms that
will persist well into the overnight hours. Behind the cold front and
storms, northwesterly winds and a FEW-SCT cloud deck will persist
through the remaining period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ001>008-011>017.

&&

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121045-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
535 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS...GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO