Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 31, 2015Gentry County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2015, 8:47 PM CDT for Gentry County, Missouri. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2015, 8:47 PM CDT (01:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2015, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Gentry County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3035 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1277 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 6:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 6:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

Storm chances across far northern Missouri will be the main concern
this weekend, mainly this evening and again Saturday evening into
Saturday night. A few storms have already begun to initiate across
eastern NE this afternoon, and a cu field continues to expand south
and east of ongoing storms, edging into the far NW corner of the
CWA. Moisture pooling in the local area and temperatures in the
upper 80s have resulted in 3000+ J/kg CAPE; however, model soundings
show a weak capping inversion lingering around 900-875 hPa that may
prevent widespread storm development. 0-6 km shear values remain
marginal at best with only about 20 kts of flow at 6 km, then winds
begin to increase dramatically above about 8 km, possibly causing
updrafts to shear off and making storm organization difficult. Above
all, the baroclinic zone supporting storm initiation continues to
weaken, and very weak surface winds indicate very little surface
focus and convergence to support CI; thus, storm coverage may be
isolated this evening. Storms will also be diurnally driven and any
southeastward progress into the rest of the CWA brings storms into a
less supportive environment, so do not expect any convection south
of the Hwy 36 corridor this evening, nor any overnight storm
activity.

Another round of storms is possible again in a similar setup
Saturday afternoon and evening, but initiation may occur a bit
further to the north where a shortwave trough will slide across
northeast Nebraska into northern Iowa. Southward sagging of any
convection or outflow boundaries could take storms into northern
Missouri after sunset, but have once again confined PoPs mainly to
the Hwy 36 corridor and northward, and taper chances back after
midnight when forcing for storms exits the region and diurnal
instability is eliminated. Better shear may support more organized
storms, but the possibility of storms staying completely north of
the CWA prevents any widespread concern for strong/severe storms.

For the remainder of the forecast area, the only real concern this
weekend will be heat as temperatures and moisture very slowly climb.
Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s will spell
heat indices maxing out around 100 most afternoons, which is not
enough for heat advisory concerns but will still be uncomfortable
for those with outdoor plans. Overnight lows will also linger in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, providing little relief during the night.
Surface winds will also remain fairly light as surface high pressure
drifts and expands east.

Storm chances continue to look a bit higher into next work week as a
slow-moving boundary drapes somewhere in the CWA and upper-level
flow flattens, supporting the transport of a few weak shortwave
troughs through the area. Models still differ a bit on the timing
and location of shortwave troughs, but storms are still possible in
almost any period with ample moisture and the surface boundary
present. Temperatures will be impacted by any clouds/precipitation
and also the eventual position of the boundary, but should generally
be a bit cooler in the majority of the CWA during the daytime hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR conditions expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours. High
pressure continues to affect the area and this should result in just
high level clouds and light winds throughout the forecast. The
exception is STJ which again may have some river valley fog.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 5:27 AM CDT, 15 hours 20 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
527 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER FAR NORTHWEST
 MISSOURI. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
 MISSOURI TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
 A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
 THE PRIMARY THREATS.

 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
 THURSDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:53 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
753 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MOZ003>005-010130-
HARRISON MO-WORTH MO-GENTRY MO-
753 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...
NORTHWESTERN GENTRY AND WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 752 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
IRENA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT AYR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANT CITY...IRENA...SHERIDAN...WORTH...ALLENDALE AND DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 9408 4032 9459 4035 9460 4039 9460
      4039 9461 4047 9461 4047 9463 4057 9463
      4057 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 337DEG 22KT 4054 9440

LG

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 8:28 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MOZ001-010200-
ATCHISON MO-
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 828 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PERU...OR 17 MILES WEST OF TARKIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TARKIO...ROCK PORT...ROCKPORT...WESTBORO...BROWNVILLE...WATSON...
INDIAN CAVE STATE PARK...PHELPS CITY AND BROWNVILLE STATE RECREATION
AREA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 102 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9554 4055 9531 4026 9550 4026 9555
      4029 9555 4032 9561 4041 9566 4046 9564
      4046 9568 4048 9570 4054 9565 4056 9568
      4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 302DEG 32KT 4046 9570

JW

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 8:47 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
847 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MOZ002>004-010215-
WORTH MO-GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-
847 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GENTRY...SOUTHWESTERN
WORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 846 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RAVENWOOD...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF STANBERRY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALBANY...STANBERRY...RAVENWOOD...CONCEPTION JUNCTION...CLYDE...GENTRY
AND CONCEPTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9429 4012 9462 4013 9463 4039 9476
      4041 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 323DEG 22KT 4032 9457

JW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 7:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Worth	37 min
Jul 31, 8:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Atchison	32 min
Jul 31, 8:51 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Saline	38 hr
Jul 31, 8:51 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard	40 hr
Jul 31, 9:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Nodaway	3 hr
Aug 1, 12:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Chariton	48 min
Aug 1, 12:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson, Johnson	43 min
Aug 1, 1:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	47 min
Aug 1, 1:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Saline	44 min
Aug 1, 1:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Pettis	50 min
Aug 1, 4:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Carroll	28 min
Aug 1, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Saline	30 min
Aug 1, 6:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Carroll, Livingston	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.