Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

The main threat in the short term will revolve around thunderstorms
expected to develop this afternoon out ahead of a cold front across
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. With MLCAPE values of
2000-2500J/Kg...steep lapse rates...dewpoints around 70F...and
modest 0-6KM shear storms will have the potential to become severe.
The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. However,
what may be the biggest threat will be the potential for flash and
river flooding. PWAT values this afternoon through tonight are
running in the 1.75"-2.00" range. Couple that with a slow moving
cold front dropping through the area, unidirectional shear
paralleling the front and very wet antecedent conditions and,
training storms producing heavy rain may be possible. This would
lead to flash flooding especially across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri where flash flood guidance is low as well as along swollen
area rivers where additional/continued river flooding would be
likely.

These storms are expected to slowly sink south tonight finally
exiting the area by tomorrow morning. However, after tomorrow
morning we finally get get a much welcome return to drying
conditions. The upper level trough will move through the region by
tomorrow morning leaving the area in benign northwest flow aloft.
Highs will be in the mid 80s. Tuesday, height rises and warm
southwesterly flow will allow highs to climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Wednesday, the area moves under a low amplitude upper
level ridge of high pressure. However, that should still drive high
temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Late
Wednesday/Wednesday night a weak back door cold front will be forced
into the area as an upper level trough moves from the Canadian
Plains into the northern Great lakes. This will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night across
the northern CWA. This cold front will stall across the area on
Thursday and lift back northward. The area should remain capped
however a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out.

The active pattern looks to return to the region on Thursday night
as an upper level trough moves from the Great Basin into the eastern
Rockies and forces a cold front into the Plains. On Friday, that
upper trough moves into the central Plains and then into the Upper
Midwest leaving the cold front stalled across the CWA. Several
shortwaves moving in southwesterly flow aloft will be possible
Friday into Sunday providing the chance for several rounds of
thunderstorms with the quasi-stationary front as the focus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

Scattered thunderstorms around the terminals (south of STJ) will
continue to at least be in the vicinity over the next few hours.
The culprit for direct impacts to the three southern terminals
(MCI, MKC, & IXD) have been the reduced visibitilies due to
moderate to heavy rainfall as a thunderstorm moves overhead. Once
these storms move out early this morning, VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Generally
northerly winds overnight will become more westerly during the day
on Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ057-103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ028>030-037-
     038-043-044.

&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
507 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALLS AND SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE SENSITIVE AREAS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1019 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIVONIA                 40.49N 92.70W
06/07/2015  E60 MPH          PUTNAM             MO   PUBLIC

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.44W
06/07/2015  E60.00 MPH       RANDOLPH           MO   PUBLIC

            OCCURRED WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN.

1042 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.44W
06/07/2015  M2.24 INCH       RANDOLPH           MO   PUBLIC

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N PRAIRIE HILL        39.56N 92.74W
06/07/2015  E60 MPH          CHARITON           MO   PUBLIC

            60 TO 70 MPH ESTIMATED. DELAYED REPORT WITH TIME ALSO
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MOZ040-046-080600-
COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-
1225 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOWARD AND NORTHERN
COOPER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF PILOT GROVE...OR 9 MILES WEST
OF BOONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOONVILLE...NEW FRANKLIN...FRANKLIN AND WOOLDRIDGE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 90 AND 114.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3887 9252 3890 9301 3903 9298 3909 9290
      3910 9251 3909 9251 3900 9256 3897 9255
      3892 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 273DEG 42KT 3899 9286

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MOZ044-045-080630-
JOHNSON MO-PETTIS MO-
1238 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KNOB NOSTER...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...SEDALIA...LA MONTE...GREEN
  RIDGE...SMITHTON AND SEDALIA MEMORIAL ARPT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3857 9378 3883 9365 3884 9305 3854 9308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 273DEG 38KT 3872 9360

CDB

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