Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Kansas City, MO

639 
WWUS53 KEAX 101731
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

MOC005-101741-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150510T1730Z/
ATCHISON MO-
1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4059 9576 4058 9542 4030 9558 4031 9561
      4031 9566 4034 9563 4041 9566 4045 9565
      4046 9568 4048 9570 4049 9569 4051 9570
      4052 9566 4054 9566 4056 9568 4052 9570
      4052 9576 4058 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 200DEG 39KT 4040 9565

$$

PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT Sun May 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

Potent storm system will swing through the area today, but the
potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms for our region will
be highly dependent on how unstable the atmosphere can become by the
afternoon. There is a growing consensus among almost all models that
numerous showers and a few storms will develop across much of the
region through the late morning and early afternoon. Such storms
would occur before the atmosphere can obtain any significant
instability and also before the better shear arrives, so they would
be unlikely to be particularly strong or severe. The biggest
impact from this activity would be to stabilize the atmosphere ahead
of an approaching cold front which would significantly reduce any
threat for severe storms later this afternoon and evening. Given the
degree of low level moisture and persistent isentropic ascent
expected this afternoon, tend to believe the latest model trends that
widespread clouds/precipitation will develop later this morning/early
afternoon and keep the severe threat low for later today. Even if
such activity fails to materialize, numerous rounds of convection
across OK/TX have really modified upstream lapse rates which will
make it difficult for our atmosphere to become significantly
unstable this afternoon. Additionally, low-level hodographs do not
appear particularly supportive of supercells or tornadoes. So even
if the sun is able to make an appearance for much of the day, the
biggest threat with any storms that develop this afternoon would be a
few strong wind gusts and perhaps some quarter-size hail and locally
heavy rainfall.

Quick west-to-east clearing will occur overnight as the cold front
pushes through. High pressure behind this system will provide dry
weather and seasonable temperatures for Monday, Tuesday and most of
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will return to the region by
Wednesday night and could linger off-and-on through the end of the
week as the upper-level pattern reverts back to broad southwest
flow, somewhat similar to the latter half of last week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

Several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms possible through
the day but timing this activity is difficult. Most likely scenario
is for an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms to develop later
this morning into the early afternoon but confidence is not high.
Could be a few additional storms along a cold front early this
evening especially if sun comes out this afternoon. Ceilings are
likely to be variable between VFR and MVFR through much of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
507 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT UNLIKELY...LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
 AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE
 SEVERE BUT...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE AREA
 STABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF SOME AREAS DO BREAK OUT INTO
 SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
 PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT
 THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THESE STORMS
 WILL BE SEVERE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO