Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Kansas City, MO

453 
WWUS53 KEAX 152312
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOC083-152330-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-150715T2330Z/
HENRY MO-
612 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

AT 612 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
WARSAW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEEPWATER...COAL...BROWNINGTON AND TIGHTWAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9379 3821 9379 3830 9382 3839 9352
      3821 9353 3821 9354 3822 9356 3820 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 251DEG 9KT 3824 9357 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PMM

036 
WWUS53 KEAX 152330
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOC083-152339-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-150715T2330Z/
HENRY MO-
630 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3820 9379 3821 9379 3830 9382 3839 9352
      3821 9353 3821 9354 3822 9356 3820 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 251DEG 9KT 3824 9357 

$$

PMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

This evening - Tonight:

The main concern in the short term is the potential for severe
weather this evening in which large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes will be possible mainly west of I-35. However, this
afternoon's showers and thunderstorms may limit that potential.
Models have not been handling the evolving situation well this
afternoon and currently would suggest temperatures in the upper 80s
to mid 90s across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Temperatures
however remain in the the upper 70s and lower 80s which has limited
instability. That being said, 40-50kts of 0-6KM shear is analyzed
across extreme northwestern Missouri however instability is
significantly lower than models suggest but still a modest 1000-
1500J/Kg of MLCAPE. Further south across southeast Kansas a cu deck
has developed in an area of extreme instability but weak shear.
these will be the two areas to monitor for storm development.
However, it is the northern area that will have the potential for
severe storms. If storms do develop it will occur on the backside of
current storms across north central Kansas where temperatures have
warmed into the lower 90s and dewpoints have risen under WAA. If
these thunderstorms do develop with the good shear over those areas,
it is possible for supercells to develop and move into northwestern
Missouri. It is these storms that would be capable of damaging winds
large hail and possibly a tornado.

Otherwise, later tonight, a wave is expected to eject out the
western Plains and move into the area as a 40-50KT LLJ develops and
noses into southeastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa. An overnight MCS is
expected to develop mainly north of the area however, the southern
periphery f that complex will bring showers and thunderstorms to
northern Missouri.

Tomorrow through Tomorrow night:

Once the overnight MCS clears the area tomorrow morning,
temperatures are expected to warm quickly into the upper 80s to mid
90s. This will lead to strong instability during the day tomorrow.
This will allow for the possibility of thunderstorm development on
any outflow that could trigger storm. Shear is expected to be weak
so storms main be more pulse-like in nature. However, isolated
severe storms may be possible with damaging winds and large hail.
Thursday night a LLJ is again expected to develop and models suggest
the possibility of additional thunderstorm development as an upper
level shortwave traverses the area.

Friday through Saturday:

This period should remain relatively dry as the upper level ridge
builds north into the area and the storm track should shift north of
the area. The best chance for thunderstorm activity would be extreme
northern Missouri. Also, with the ridge building across the area,
highs should warm into the low to perhaps mid 90s.

Sunday - Wednesday:

An upper trough will dig southward into the Plains and Upper Midwest
pushing a cold front into the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along this front during the day. This
front is expected to be slow mover and not exit the area until
Monday morning. Conditions look mainly dry beyond Monday morning as
an upper level ridge looks to build back over the area by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

Nearby precipitation will continue to move east away from the
terminal sites through the early afternoon hours. Cloud layer will
likely stay in place Wednesday afternoon, though may see a brief
scattering periodically. Afternoon convection will be the main
impact though confidence is lacking, given the current cloud cover
and weak signals with model guidance. Conditions will improve by the
end of the period with gradually scattering clouds by Thursday
morning. Overnight convection is possible for areas further north, in
particular KSTJ, but this will likely remain outside of the KC
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh/Metz/Chandler

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
503 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
503 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
 ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND
 DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
 INDEX VALUES REACHING IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
 HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100 DEGREE RANGE
 MOST AFTERNOONS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO