Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Kansas City, MO

693 
WWUS53 KEAX 252357
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

MOC195-260015-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-150626T0015Z/
SALINE MO-
657 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL SALINE
COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 653 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARSHALL...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 636 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN MARSHALL. AT 627 PM...LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE 5 MILES EAST OF 
BRUNSWICK. AT 651 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL 
SIZE HAIL IN MARSHALL. AT 650 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN MARSHALL.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...SLATER...NELSON AND ARROW ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 9286 3917 9291 3914 9291 3912 9295
      3910 9294 3909 9291 3908 9291 3899 9302
      3902 9349 3922 9348 3923 9293 3922 9289
      3923 9287 3923 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 275DEG 10KT 3912 9320

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SEPARATING RATHER COOL AIR, CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST IDEA OF WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IS GENERALLY ALONG A E-W LINE BETWEEN KCNK AND KIRK. THIS
BOUNDARY ALSO SHOWS UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A MORE DENSE
STRATO-CU DECK ALONG THAT PREVIOUSLY NOTED E-W LINE. RADAR TRENDS
AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY COMMENCE IN SE
NEBRASKA, BUT THIS APPEARS TO ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NE KANSAS AND SE NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS ALSO
APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIKELY ELEVATED IN
NATURE.

THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS STARTING TO TAKE
SOME SHAPE, AS THE BOUNDARY IS A GOOD PLACE TO LOOK FOR INITIAL
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL A BIT CAPPED OFF, SO DEVELOPMENT
IS MAYBE STILL ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AWAY, BUT AS THAT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ASCENT
TO GET SOME STORMS TO GO UP ALONG THAT MAXIMIZED
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS FAR AS SEVERE
WEATHER IS CONCERNED, THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO
FORM SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR IS RIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHERE THE N/NE WINDS MAXIMIZE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HOWEVER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED, SO HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS FAR NE KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE IS
MAXIMIZED AROUND 3500 TO 4500 J/KG OF ML CAPE, BUT THE SHEAR ISN'T
QUITE AS HIGH. SO ESSENTIALLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS THAT BOUNDARY WILL SAG A
BIT SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN
THE SD/NE BORDER REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL
CERTAINLY BRING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MID LEVEL ASCENT TO KICK OFF
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OUT OF THE WEST, AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL AID IN A TRAINING TYPE OF STORM EVOLUTION, WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS WILL GO OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS MIGHT BE A MOOT
DETAIL CONSIDERING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE STORMY ACTIVITY.
PWAT VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH, WITH THE LATEST NAM INDICATING 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES OF PWAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CURRENT SPC MESOANLYSIS INDICATES NEARLY 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OF PWAT
IN PLACE ALREADY. SO CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHLIGHTED CORRIDOR FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IS A BIT UNCLEAR, WITH CURRENT QPF AND POP
FORECAST INDICATING AN AREA ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AS BEING THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR THE 4+ INCH RAIN TOTALS, BUT
MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS, NAMELY THE 18Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS INDICATE
A BIT OF A SOUTHERN SHIFT TO THAT CORRIDOR. SO ANYWHERE BETWEEN HWY
36 AND HWY 50 APPEAR TO BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WHILE
THE SOILS SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER IT WILL STILL ONLY LIKELY HOLD
A COUPLE INCHES BEFORE SATURATION. AREAS NORTH OF THE MO RIVER ARE
SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. AREA STREAMS ARE ALREADY SWOLLEN FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS, SO CAPACITY BEFORE FLOODING IN THESE STREAMS IS MINIMAL. THE
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE GETTING OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING 4+ INCHES OF RAIN. AND OF COURSE
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE PERHAPS 6+ INCHES OF RAIN. WHILE STORMS
COULD START AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, THE BULK OF THE STORMY
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9AM, WITH
RAIN LIKELY ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL
DISSIPATION/MOVEMENT SOUTH OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS, LEADING TO A MUCH KINDER
AND GENTLER WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA BRINGING WARMTH AND
MOISTURE BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP REINTRODUCE SOME
RAIN CHANCES, BUT OF COURSE THAT FAR IT IT'S TOUCH TO GAUGE
TIMING/IMPACTS, SO WILL REFINE THOSE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

Tried to refine the timing of the precip to the terminals. The
afternoon/evening stuff is a bit uncertain with coverage, but
overnight is a bit more widespread, so tried to convey that with the
VCTS/TEMPO group in the evening with a prevailing group overnight.
Best chance for the prevailing thunderstorm activity is in the
overnight period. Determining the exact cutoff of the precipitation
early Friday morning is tricky, so went with a VCTS transition
period through mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-260900-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
347 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL LEAD TO
 DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES SOUTH OF ROUTE 36. HEAT INDEX
 VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 96 TO 101 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS
 OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
 EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SOME OF
 THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
 REMAINING THE BIGGEST THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS MAY LEAD TO
 FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE NEARLY SATURATED
 SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT WEEKS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
 PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

MOZ038-252330-
LAFAYETTE MO-
604 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ODESSA...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ODESSA...HIGGINSVILLE...WELLINGTON...MAYVIEW...CORDER AND
  AULLVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 56.

LAT...LON 3897 9411 3906 9411 3907 9411 3914 9411
      3914 9405 3915 9403 3915 9399 3914 9396
      3915 9395 3918 9362 3895 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 268DEG 22KT 3906 9399

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             SUMNER                  39.65N 93.24W
06/25/2015  E1.25 INCH       CHARITON           MO   PUBLIC

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             1 N SUMNER              39.67N 93.24W
06/25/2015  E0.75 INCH       CHARITON           MO   PUBLIC

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROOKFIELD              39.79N 93.08W
06/25/2015  E60.00 MPH       LINN               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREE LIMBS BROKEN IN THE WIND. LASTED FOR SEVERAL
            MINUTES

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKFIELD              39.79N 93.08W
06/25/2015                   LINN               MO   PUBLIC

            BROKEN TREE LIMB, 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MEADVILLE           39.79N 93.34W
06/25/2015                   LINN               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS 6 TO 10 INCH TREE LIMBS LAYING ACROSS HWY 36
            NEAR MEADVILLE.

&&

JL