Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

Tonight - Tuesday night:

Will play the waiting game on convection for tonight. Progged Bufr
soundings show impressive 800mb cap of +21C to +24C across northern
MO currently placing a hold on convective growth despite presence of
stratocu....which are starting to form cloud rolls. Satellite and
regional radars do show some cells popping up over south central IA
but think it'll be a few more hours before activity forms over the
northern counties. A narrow h7 vorticity lobe is likely passing
across the eastern NE/western IA portion of the cold front. Should
start to see some cooling temperatures aloft but question remains
will it be sufficient to release the MLCAPEs of 4500 J/kg. If it can
then any convection which forms will likely become severe. Will
delay convective development by an hour or two with highest PoPs
over northeast MO where cap is weaker. Since most of the driving
mechanism is tied to the instability the loss of daytime heating
will likely result in a rapid weakening of convection.

The cold front is expected to reach the far southwestern counties
before stalling Tuesday morning. As the front begins to retreat
northward scattered convection is probable with the far western
counties having the best chance of seeing activity. Can't rule out
an isolated severe storm along/north of the retreating front. Cooler
temperatures expected tomorrow due to most of the CWA being under an
easterly surface wind and a good deal of cloud cover.

The area of convection will lift into northern MO by Tuesday evening
with the warm sector gradually spreading north.

Wednesday:

Models diverging a bit on location of the warm front on Wednesday
with the latest NAM and SREF now stalling the front across northern
MO while the GFS and ECMWF lift it into southern IA before stalling.
In either case should see at least morning convection across
northern MO. Otherwise, the hot and humid airmass returns, although
probably not as steamy as today due to some better mixing.
Thursday - Saturday:

Thursday - Friday:

Operational GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent in shifting the
vacillating front back south through the CWA as the upper flow
across the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley veers from zonal to a
northwesterly pattern. This in turn would force the front south.
Since the shift to the south would likely be slow and precipitable
water values remain high the potential for very heavy rainfall is
increased.

Friday night - Monday:

As an upper ridge builds across the intermountain region with an
upper trough over the OH/TN Valleys the pronounced northwesterly
flow will bring some welcome relief from the heat and high humidity.
Can't say the entire weekend will be rain free as impulses like to
hide as they track southeast along the front side of the upper
ridge. Otherwise, expect slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

Line of showers over northwest Missouri is struggling to overcome
warm air around 7,000 ft. Thinking this warm air should suppress most
of this activity, but still could see scattered storms pop up along
this line in the next few hours. Any storms that do develop could
persist a few hours before dissipating toward 10 or 11 PM. More
scattered storms possible Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ002>006-011>015-
     020>023-028>031-037-038-043.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
513 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
 MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE.

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF
 INTERSTATE 70. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
 THREATS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
 ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
 ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO