River Flood Warning 307, NWS Kansas City, MO

258 
WGUS83 KEAX 090130
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Maryville affecting Andrew and Nodaway Counties.

  Grand River near Chillicothe affecting Linn and Livingston 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll...Chariton...Linn and 
  Livingston Counties.

  Platte River near Agency affecting Buchanan County.

  Platte River At Sharps Station affecting Platte County.

  Platte River near Platte City affecting Platte County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Rosendale affecting Andrew and Buchanan Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-147-090200-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0301.000000T0000Z-150910T0800Z/
/MYVM7.1.ER.150907T1718Z.150908T1845Z.150908T2156Z.UU/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The 102 River at Maryville.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  4:56 PM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.9 feet by Thursday 
  morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Maryville       18   16.2   Tue 07 PM   14.3 early Wednesday 
morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4057 9477 4013 9478 4013 9488 4057 9488

  

$$

MOC003-021-100129-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0302.000000T0000Z-150910T1200Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.150908T0236Z.150909T0600Z.150909T1200Z.NO/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Rosendale.
* until Thursday morning.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 19.5 
  feet early Wednesday morning.
* At 19.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east and west sides of 
  Rosendale is under water.
* At 18.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east side of Rosendale is 
  overtopped by flood waters.
* At 13.0 feet...Lowland agricultural flooding begins.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Rosendale       18                      19.5 early Wednesday 
morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4013 9488 4013 9478 3977 9471 3977 9480 4004 9486

  

$$

MOC115-117-090200-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0303.000000T0000Z-150910T1559Z/
/CHZM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Grand River near Chillicothe.
* At  7:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  21.3 feet early Wednesday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Low-lying cropland floods.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Chillicothe     24   20.9   Tue 08 PM   21.3 early Wednesday 
morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3983 9363 3978 9343 3967 9343 3974 9367

  

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-100129-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0307.150909T1030Z-150910T2247Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.150909T1030Z.150909T1800Z.150909T2247Z.NO/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Sumner.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon.
* At  7:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 26.4 feet by early Wednesday afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.
* At 28.0 feet...Rural roads are under water.
* At 26.0 feet...Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
* At 23.0 feet...Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage begins to 
  flood.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Sumner          26   24.8   Tue 08 PM   26.4 early Wednesday 
afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321 3951 9330

  

$$

MOC021-100129-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0304.000000T0000Z-150912T0831Z/
/AGYM7.2.ER.150908T0549Z.150910T1200Z.150911T0831Z.NO/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Agency.
* until late Friday night.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 23.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.0 feet by 
  Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  morning.
* At 25.0 feet...Flooding begins at the east border of Agency.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying areas east of Agency begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Agency          20   23.9   Tue 07 PM   25.0 Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3977 9480 3977 9471 3951 9464 3941 9464 3941 9472

  

$$

MOC165-100129-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0308.150910T0325Z-150913T0909Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.150910T0325Z.150911T1800Z.150912T0909Z.NO/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River At Sharps Station.
* from Wednesday evening to late Saturday night.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday before midnight and 
  continue to rise to near 28.4 feet by early Friday afternoon. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 26.0 feet...Low-lying rural land along the river begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Sharps Station  26   22.5   Tue 07 PM   28.4 early Friday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3941 9474 3941 9464 3935 9476 3939 9479

  

$$

MOC165-100129-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0309.150910T1047Z-150913T1525Z/
/PLCM7.1.ER.150910T1047Z.150912T0000Z.150912T1525Z.UU/
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Platte City.
* from late Wednesday night to Sunday morning.
* At  6:07 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 21.7 feet by Friday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late Saturday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Cropland near State Highway 92 near Platte City 
  begins to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Platte City     20   13.4   Tue 06 PM   21.7 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9479 3935 9476 3927 9481 3929 9484 3933 9483

  

$$

569 
WGUS83 KEAX 091110
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015
   

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Rosendale affecting Andrew and Buchanan Counties.

  Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll...Chariton...Linn and 
  Livingston Counties.

  Platte River near Agency affecting Buchanan County.

  Platte River At Sharps Station affecting Platte County.

  Platte River near Platte City affecting Platte County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-021-100450-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0302.000000T0000Z-150910T0450Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.150908T0236Z.150909T0158Z.150909T0450Z.NO/
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The 102 River at Rosendale.
* until this evening.
* At  8:58 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late yesterday evening.
* At 18.0 feet...State Route 48 on the east side of Rosendale is 
  overtopped by flood waters.
* At 13.0 feet...Lowland agricultural flooding begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Rosendale       18   18.4   Tue 09 PM   17.0 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4013 9488 4013 9478 3977 9471 3977 9480 4004 9486

  

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-101109-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-150910T1251Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.150909T0620Z.150909T0900Z.150909T1251Z.NO/
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Sumner.
* until Thursday morning.
* At  5:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 26.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.1 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage this morning.
* At 26.0 feet...Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
* At 23.0 feet...Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Sumner          26   26.1   Wed 06 AM   26.1 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321 3951 9330

  

$$

MOC021-101109-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0304.000000T0000Z-150912T0642Z/
/AGYM7.1.ER.150908T0549Z.150910T1200Z.150911T0642Z.NO/
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Agency.
* until late Friday night.
* At  5:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.8 feet by 
  Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying areas east of Agency begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Agency          20   23.7   Wed 05 AM   24.8 Thursday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3977 9480 3977 9471 3951 9464 3941 9464 3941 9472

  

$$

MOC165-101109-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0308.150910T0359Z-150913T0646Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.150910T0359Z.150911T1800Z.150912T0646Z.NO/
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River At Sharps Station.
* from this evening to late Saturday night.
* At  5:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 28.3 feet by early Friday afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* At 26.0 feet...Low-lying rural land along the river begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Sharps Station  26   24.8   Wed 05 AM   28.3 early Friday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3941 9474 3941 9464 3935 9476 3939 9479

  

$$

MOC165-101109-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0309.150910T0900Z-150913T1307Z/
/PLCM7.1.ER.150910T0900Z.150912T0000Z.150912T1307Z.UU/
610 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Platte River near Platte City.
* from late tonight to Sunday morning.
* At  6:07 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 21.6 feet by Friday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...Cropland near State Highway 92 near Platte City 
  begins to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Platte River
  Platte City     20   13.4   Tue 06 PM   21.6 Friday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9479 3935 9476 3927 9481 3929 9484 3933 9483

  

$$

670 
WGUS83 KEAX 091626
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015
   

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  102 River at Rosendale affecting Andrew and Buchanan Counties.

  Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll...Chariton...Linn and 
  Livingston Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC003-021-091656-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0302.000000T0000Z-150910T0450Z/
/RSDM7.2.ER.150908T0236Z.150909T0158Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The 102 River at Rosendale.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to continue falling.
&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

102 River
  Rosendale       18   Not Available      14.0 this evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4013 9488 4013 9478 3977 9471 3977 9480 4004 9486

  

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-091656-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-150910T1251Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.150909T0620Z.150909T0900Z.150909T1127Z.NO/
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Grand River near Sumner.
* At 10:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 25.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  6:27 AM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 20.7 feet by Thursday
  morning.
* At 23.0 feet...Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Sumner          26   25.2   Wed 11 AM   25.0 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321 3951 9330

  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

Early this morning through tonight:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to track across portions of the
forecast area, primarily focused currently across the MO/IA/NE border
with a few scattered cells a bit further south and in eastern KS.
These areas will continue to be the spots to look for precip chances
through the remainder of the overnight hours. While the overall
threat for severe weather is low, as what has been seen early this
morning in far SE NE/NW MO, an isolated chance for a feisty storm
cannot be entirely ruled out as an axis of enhanced instability can
be seen reaching into this area, such as via DCAPE on SPC's meso
analysis and theta-e difference on the CIMSS NearCast model. Add to
the mix boundaries aplenty, a moisture-rich atmosphere, PVA in the
region, etc., and there's just enough for a rogue stronger storm to
work with despite the better wind shear displaced farther to the
northwest. As for the moderate to heavy rainfall potential, that will
continue to be a possibility for any storms that develop as these are
efficient rain producers. 00Z TOP sounding had PWATs at just under 2
inches (1.92 in.), which is well above climatology for this time of
year (closer to 1.1 to 1.2 in.), exceeding the 90th percentile. What
has been keeping the flash flood threat at bay has been the lack of a
much wider-spread development of a cluster of storms with training,
which seems less and less likely of that panning out through this
morning.

As the well-advertised cold front expected to cross the forecast area
today/tonight marches through, overall model consensus yields a
continuation of pockets of storms here and there through midday with
a better defined line (even if still broken) developing this
afternoon. Once the line comes together and the front finally starts
to make its way through, storms will move off toward the south and
east with clearing behind it. A couple of scenarios depict a
secondary line forming right along the front, behind this primary
line of storms, so that will be something else to keep in mind for
today. Regardless, look for clearing to occur from NW to SE as
cooler, stable air moseys in behind the front.

Wednesday through tomorrow night:
As already alluded to, cooler air will be working its way into the
region, thanks to the fropa tonight, making it feel much more like
what can be expected for early September. Dry weather will prevail
for this period, at least briefly, thanks to surface high pressure
traversing through.

Thursday through Friday:
Could see another opportunity for precip chances to return to the
area later this week, thanks to a disturbance that develops across
the Central Plains, then tracks across NE and KS, swinging through
the local area on Friday. At this time, not much significantly stands
out in terms of any major concerns with these showers and storms.

Widespread lower 80 degree temperatures should be what to expect for
Thursday with another cooldown on Friday (highs in the 70s!) as a
reinforcing shot of cooler air rushes in behind the aforementioned
disturbance.

Weekend through early next week:
Early on in the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF agree on flow aloft being
primarily northwesterly but by the end of the weekend, model
divergence becomes evident, although the disagreements aren't too bad
from one another. Surface high pressure is shown to dominate with
lower-level southerly flow returning to the area early next week. No
clear signal exists at this time for precip chances, just more upper
70s to lower 80s temps, reminiscent of what's normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

The region remains locked in an unsettled weather pattern with
thunderstorm chances possible to pop-up at any time through much of
today in and around all four area terminals. The most likely timing
for direct impacts looks to occur from around 14 - 15Z through around
18 - 19Z. As a cold front begins to cross the area later today
through tonight, a line or two of thunderstorms looks to develop
ahead of it. Along with moderate to heavy rainfall, reducing visbys,
gusty winds may be contained within any storm that develops. Winds
tonight will become northerly behind the front so look for shifting
to occur later this afternoon through this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
745 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091245-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
745 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG TO ISOLATED
 SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
 HOURS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
 THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

MOZ038-044-081215-
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 625 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ODESSA TO NEAR
HOLDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WARRENSBURG...HIGGINSVILLE...HOLDEN...KINGSVILLE...LAKE LAFAYETTE...
CENTERVIEW...AULLVILLE...PITTSVILLE AND FAYETTEVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND
53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9368 3887 9357 3867 9363 3867 9409
      3884 9405 3896 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 268DEG 24KT 3894 9401 3885 9393 3874 9400

MJ