Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Kansas City, MO

786 
WGUS73 KEAX 201424
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
924 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

KSC005-103-201433-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-150720T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEAVENWORTH KS-ATCHISON KS-
924 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LEAVENWORTH AND ATCHISON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3965 9556 3965 9512 3962 9510 3962 9506
      3954 9511 3938 9493 3938 9488 3931 9491
      3927 9486 3920 9485 3920 9490 3898 9492
      3900 9492 3900 9502 3897 9504 3899 9508
      3897 9519 3942 9518 3942 9557

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

A quasi-stationary front was draped from northeastern KS through
west central MO into southeastern MO early this morning. Convection
has been developing on the boundary throughout the night, enhanced
by a reservoir of moderate to high CAPE and an upper shortwave trough
moving across the center of the country. Precipitable water values
remain in excess of 2" in the vicinity of the front. The convective
system over northeastern KS should be the main player this morning
and perhaps into the early afternoon. As this convection shifts east
this morning, widespread heavy rainfall is likely. This should
mainly affect areas along and north of interstate 70. But given the
presence of the boundary and the copious atmospheric moisture,
storms could form at any time and produce very heavy rainfall. So
the flash flood watch still looks valid and will keep it going as
is.

The other issue for today is the potential for severe convection,
which looks most likely from roughly the Missouri River southward.
Depending on the model, shear looks somewhat marginal to strong
enough to support organized storms. The NAM is stronger than the GFS
but is supported by the RAP. Stronger shear also seems like a better
possibility given the the strong MCV over central KS that should
make it into our forecast area by late morning or early afternoon.
CAPE/shear combinations would then support organized convection,
including supercells, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most
likely hazards. Veered and relatively week surface winds should limit
low level shear and in turn the tornado potential. But any storm
that interacts with any boundary that may be out there will have an
enhanced tornado potential. Hail, especially severe hail, looks like
a low probability given forecast high freezing levels. But a
sustained and organized updraft, like in a supercell, would enhance
that potential.

There will be a temporary relief to the warm weather and especially
the humidity in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. The upper
shortwave trough that will help bring us thunderstorms today will
push a cold front south through the region. Noticeably drier air will
filter into the region behind the front and that will allow for
pleasant July weather as overnight lows dip into the lower 60s
through the middle of the week. That front will stall south of the
area and as the surface high pressure shifts to the east by the end
of the week, the moisture that was shunted just south of the area
will stream back north and we're right back into a rainy and humid
weather pattern. It continues to look like the forecast area will be
in the storm track for periodic convective systems as the upper
ridge never really establishes itself into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

Thunderstorms will gradually build into the area from the southwest
and west after 07z-08z, possibly impacting all TAF sites between 08z
and at least 12z Monday morning. After storms move out, a period of
VFR conditions is expected through at least mid- to late-afternoon.
Cumulus with bases around 4 kft will develop during the afternoon,
then isolated storms will become possible after 21z and may continue
into the evening. The probability and coverage of storms still
appears too low for more than VCTS at this time. Winds will veer from
east to west during the period, still at speeds less than 10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

KSZ060-200545-
LINN KS-
1207 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LINN COUNTY UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

AT 1207 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LONE ELM...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LA HARPE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUND CITY AND BLUE MOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3825 9507 3826 9506 3831 9506
      3835 9502 3805 9473 3804 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 246DEG 20KT 3803 9520

LEIGHTON