Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Kansas City, MO

024 
WGUS73 KEAX 191155
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MOC061-075-081-191204-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150719T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRISON MO-DAVIESS MO-GENTRY MO-
655 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HARRISON...NORTHERN DAVIESS
AND SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...SO 
FLOODING COULD RESUME LATER TODAY.

LAT...LON 4004 9377 4005 9440 4023 9440 4034 9376

$$

LEIGHTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

Forecast for today had issues, what with the morning storms and
cloud cover that lingered into the afternoon, but the mid to late
afternoon and evening hours will still be hot and humid in areas
from Kansas city south. Have dropped much of the heat advisory for
areas from northwest Missouri, and adjacent northeast Kansas,
through northeast and central Missouri for the rest of the day and
into the evening hours. For Kansas City, and areas along Highway 50
and south, heat index values between 100 and 105 will likely persist
into evening hours, so will keep the advisory going for those areas.

For tonight and into Sunday...still looking at the potential of more
thunderstorms to develop late tonight as a frontal boundary,
currently languishing across southeast Nebraska back through central
Kansas, settles south into northern Missouri. Have kept POPs in
northern Missouri for this evening as a result, but without any
notable shortwave on water vapor confidence in storms this evening
is a bit low. However, as the front settles south overnight
convection looks increasingly likely as a weak perturbation, noted
over Colorado this hour, zips east through the locally zonal flow
across the Central Plains. This should spark some early morning
storms in eastern Kansas and Missouri early Sunday morning, with the
activity slowly settling south that morning and perhaps persisting
through much of the day, much like the convection across northern and
western Missouri today. As for the severe potential, it is not
looking quite as good. Early in the morning both 0-3KM and 0-6KM
shear values are a bit low as the mid-level shortwave will still be
to the west as the isentropic ascent ahead of the wave gets storms
going. Later in the day the shear values come up as the shortwave
trough moves through, but expectations are that morning convection
might then mess with the instability, and maybe the shear also, for
the daylight hours Sunday. However, with precipitable water values
running around 2 inches expect moderate to heavy rain from any of the
strong storms.

Otherwise for Sunday...areas of east central Kansas into west central
Missouri is expected to be hot and humid again Sunday. Areas from
Mound City Kansas east through Butler, Harrisonville, Clinton,
Warrensburg and Sedalia might get near heat advisory criteria again
much of the rain and cloud cover expected during the day Sunday might
stay north of Highway 50. Will not issue any heat advisory for
Sunday owing to the high potential for storms to mess up the high
temperatures, but this might be something to watch for Sunday.

Monday and through the work week...more storms will be possible. On
Monday and Monday night another shortwave trough will dig into the
Plains, taking the boundary that settled into Missouri tonight and
pulling it back to the north ahead of the shortwave only to have it
pushed back south as the wave passes Monday night. This will keep the
threat of storms in the forecast through the day Monday and Monday
night. The final push of the front should help clear precipitation
chances from the forecast area for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with
some rather nice afternoon highs in the 80s. But, a building ridge
axis to our west during the mid to late work week periods will bring
a return of 90s late in the work week as well as inducing more
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

Storms currently across northern MO are not expected to impact any of
the TAF sites tonight; thus, VFR conditions should persist through at
least daybreak Sunday. A complex of storms currently over western KS
could reach TAF sites by 15z Sunday, but due to the uncertainty, have
stuck with VCTS for this period. Afterward, winds will veer to the
northeast and primarily VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
453 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
 HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 101 AND 105 ACROSS THE AREA.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FLOODING
 RAINS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MOZ004-005-014-190630-
HARRISON MO-GENTRY MO-DAVIESS MO-
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...
NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS AND EAST CENTRAL GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM
CDT...

AT 1244 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR NEW HAMPTON...OR NEAR ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHANY...NEW HAMPTON AND MCFALL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND
97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4016 9435 4028 9427 4035 9400 4018 9399
      4006 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 280DEG 13KT 4021 9425

LEIGHTON