Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

628 
WGUS73 KEAX 050624
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
124 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

KSC043-MOC003-087-050638-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150605T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-ANDREW MO-
124 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN ANDREW...
HOLT AND NORTHERN DONIPHAN COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 130
AM CDT...

AREAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...BUT RAPID FLOOD WATER RISES FROM EXCESS RUNOFF HAVE 
RECEDED...CURRENTLY ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

LAT...LON 4023 9547 4009 9491 3981 9487 3990 9534
      4000 9534 4000 9531 4003 9535 4002 9539
      4004 9542 4006 9542 4007 9540 4012 9540
      4013 9543 4016 9544 4018 9548 4020 9549

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Raised short term PoPs to account for evolution of small MCS over
southeast NE. HRRR having some problems resolving convective
development and suspect we will see better solutions after the 00z upper
air data is ingested into the RAP. That being said believe we could
see a couple of MCSs affect the CWa overnight through early Friday
morning. The southeast NE MCS would be the first one with a second
probably coming from activity that would form over north central KS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Storm complex from earlier today has dissipated almost completely,
but it had significant stabilization effects on the atmosphere over
northeast KS and much of northern MO. This should keep most of the
area generally dry for much of the afternoon and early evening,
although storms developing over southern Nebraska could impact far
northwest Missouri later this afternoon. This activity is being
driven by a LLJ over that region, and this should keep these storms
focused from far northwest Missouri and points north through the
evening.

Another impulse coming out of the Rockies will likely spark another
storm complex over northern KS and southern NE later tonight where it
will be fed by a continued LLJ. Moisture and thermal profiles look
similar to the past two days with very high moisture and ingredients
in place for very heavy rainfall. Mid-level flow would favor an east-
northeast track from northeast KS into far northern MO into the late
evening, then turning to the southeast into northern and possibly
western MO late tonight if a sufficient cold pool can develop. This
could impact areas that saw heavy rain over the past 48 hours so the
flash flood watch has been extended into Friday for these areas.
Depending on how quickly low- and mid-level lapse rates can recover
overnight, modest 0-2.5 km shear could favor some bowing segments
with strong wind over northwest Missouri overnight.

Friday's forecast is highly dependent on how tonight's storm complex
evolves and is thus low confidence. It looks like another impulse
could track through the area during the afternoon and evening and
this could spark additional storms across much of the area if the
atmosphere can destabilize sufficiently. Should such storms develop
they would pose a threat for more heavy rain and possibly strong
winds and hail. Most models indicate a drier day on Saturday, but
with an unstable airmass in place any weak ripple in the upper level
flow could spark more storms so held on to storm chances for now.

Upper level flow will flatten out by Sunday and Monday, but a
lingering frontal boundary could still spark off storms either day.
This boundary may finally sag south enough to send the storm track
south of us by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

Forecast is tied to overnight evolution of MCSs. A small MCS over
southeast NE is expected to expand this evening as better
moisture/instability feeds into the western fringe of the complex. A
second MCS is a bit more problematic as short range models have
overplayed the development of convection over western KS. Believe
later activity is more likely to form over north central KS/south
central NE and then roll eastward, much as they did last night.
Low confidence on timing of the second MCS so lengthened the period
containing VCTS. Ceilings will generally remain VFR although when
heavier cells move through MVFR visibilities/ceilings are likely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SATURATED
 SOILS...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
 PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ADJACENT
 EASTERN KANSAS.

 FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
 ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
 MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
 THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE A
 FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
 HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO