Wind Advisory 5, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL

166 
WWUS73 KDVN 102244
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

...WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024-
102345-
/O.CAN.KDVN.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151210T2300Z/
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JO DAVIESS-
STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-
MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...GALENA...
FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...
ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO
444 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

$$
RP KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THE SKY WAS PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN INCREASING SOUTH BREEZE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY TO
SLOWLY RISING. AT 3 AM CST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

MORE QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONT FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AM BANKING ON THE
CLOUDS TO TEMPER THE MIXING DEPTH...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM
COMPARED TO THE WARMER GFS. THUS...AM FAVORING SOMEWHAT COOLER
MET GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...LOW 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. BURLINGTON HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK THE CURRENT
RECORD HIGH OF 60. CEDAR RAPIDS AND MOLINE MAY FLIRT WITH THE
RECORDS...WHILE THE RECORD HIGH OF 57 IN DUBUQUE APPEARS TO BE
SAFE. A W/SW BREEZE WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. HAVE FAVORED THE COOL
END OF TEMP GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH...UPPER 30S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THO DEC 10 2015

DESPITE TREMENDOUS VARIANCES ON IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...THE OVERALL PICTURE OF
THIS EVENT POINTS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT RAIN
TOTALS...AND SEVERAL MORE ADDITIONAL DAYS OF VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CAMPS TONIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOW BROAD MOIST
WANEVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROM HERE ON THE TWO CAMPS DIVERGE...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK LOW RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WELL EAST OF
OUR CWA AND RAPIDLY LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY
WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A STRONG CYCLONE. THE GEM AND
ECMWF WHICH ARE MORE CONSISTENT...INTENSIFY THE LOW PRESSURE AS IS
PASSES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY...AND LIFT IT TO WISCONSIN BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWEST OF THE
GFS...AND FOR OUR AREA...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SCENARIO. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD GREATLY SUPPORT A WARM STORM FOR ALL OF OUR
CWA...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE. SO AT
THIS POINT...THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS TIMING OF THE END OF THE RAINS...AND ON WINDS. BOTH
OF WHICH ARE BROADLY REPRESENTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
BLENDING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

FOR NOW...I HAVE REDUCED THE SNOW FROM OUR FORECAST GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING...WHICH DO NOT FALL BELOW 35...IN
FACT THE DEWPOINTS DO NOT FALL BELOW 35 WITHIN THE LIKELY PERIOD OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT MOSTLY LIKELY
WILL BE A COLD BREEZY RAIN.

THERE REMAINS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
MONDAY...AND THE NEXT STORMS SYSTEM DUE ALREADY TAKING AIM ON THE
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT STORM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...AND GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A TRACK
EITHER THROUGH WESTERN IOWA OR FARTHER NORTH...WE WOULD BE ON THE
DRY AND WARM SIDE IN ANY CASE. THUS...WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THAT LOW PASSAGE TUESDAY...WE SHOULD ENTER A PERIOD OF
COLD ADVECTION...WITH MORE INTERLOCK TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THESE
DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLD STRATUS.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THO DEC 10 2015

STRONG SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND GUSTING 30 TO 40+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AFTER 3 PM CST WHEN THEY SHOULD START TO DIMINISH.
A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WI WILL SWEEP A MVFR
CLOUD DECK ACRS CID AND BBQ FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF CID EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAKE IT ACRS DBQ WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY REDUCED
DOWN TO 5-6SM BRIEFLY AS THEY MOVE BY. CLEARING/DECREASING CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AGAIN 5-10 KTS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE AS FRIDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY DECEMBER 10...

MOLINE.........60 IN 1979
CEDAR RAPIDS...59 IN 1979
DUBUQUE........57 IN 1911
BURLINGTON.....61 IN 1979

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
409 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
409 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
APPEARS TO BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RECENT WET WEATHER
THIS PAST MONTH HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED...AND THE UPCOMING STORM
APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
MAY PRODUCE RUNOFF THAT WOULD BRING FLOODING TO SOME TRIBUTARY
RIVERS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS NEAR TRIBUTARY RIVERS SHOULD KEEP UP
TO DATE ON THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND ANY SUBSEQUENT FLOODING
RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1046 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-102215-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...
MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...
GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...
MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO...
OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA
1046 AM CST THU DEC 10 2015

...STRONG WINDS THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

TRAVELERS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ESPECIALLY ON NORTH TO SOUTH
ROADS...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THESE WINDS. THE WINDS MAY
ALSO BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS HOLIDAY DECORATIONS.

12