Tornado Warning 12, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS WAS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-890 CORRIDOR OVER
NW IL INTO EASTERN IA...SEPARATING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 TO THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER TO MID 80S WERE FOUND TO
THE SOUTH. DEEP MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WAS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WAS LEADING TO SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 4500 TO NEAR 6000 J/KG ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SO
FAR THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY A STRONG TORNADIC
SUPERCELL TRACKING W AND SW OF OTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS WITH MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM
CLINTON THROUGH IOWA CITY TO OTTUMWA. WILL BE MOST CLOSELY
WATCHING STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY...AND THE CLUSTER IN THE FAR SW...THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST
LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT AT 00Z ROUGHLY BISECTED IA FROM NE TO SW...AND
WILL END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

BOW ECHO THAT PRODUCED 70 TO 90 MPH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAS LEFT A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY
NORTH OF I-80. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SHEAR HAD DEVELOPED
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA...WITH HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
TO FESTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN NW
IA WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR FAR NW CWA BY EVENING. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CAPES WILL BUILD
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE HRRR DEVELOPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR HIGHWAY 30 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING INTO ANOTHER
BOW ECHO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH AS IT PUSHES
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. TO SAY THE LEAST THIS IS
ANOTHER DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH OVER WITH IN THE DVN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN AREAS IN OUR
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPES OF 6000 J/KG IN NW MO WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IA (BEWARE OF THE GRADIENT). EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WAS 70 KNOTS...HELICITY 300 M2/S2 WITH 1 KM EHI OF 5. STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS EVIDENT ALONG WITH PWAT'S OF NEARLY
2 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN BRIEFLY QUIET
ON TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DETAILS WERE NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION
ABOVE BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END BY 10 OR 11 PM. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...USHERING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 60 ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THEN COOLER BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE DVN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY OUR FAR SOUTH STILL HAVING A
CHANCE OF STORMS. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER BY FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AND MAINLY DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE MLI AND BRL TERMINALS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CHANGE TO THE NW AND
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLEARING SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231400-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER AN
ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 10 PM CDT. THE PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. HOWEVER...BY EVENING THE PRIMARY RISK WILL
BECOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS      41.95N 91.66W
06/22/2015  E0.88 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN

&&

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             SW CEDAR RAPIDS         41.97N 91.67W
06/22/2015  M0.75 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ065-066-068-ILZ015-222030-
ROCK ISLAND-CEDAR-CLINTON-SCOTT-
302 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHERN SCOTT AND EAST CENTRAL CEDAR
COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CALAMUS...OR 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DURANT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

DE WITT...WHEATLAND...GRAND MOUND...CALAMUS...MCCAUSLAND...
DIXON...SHERMAN PARK...BIG ROCK AND SCOTT COUNTY PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4173 9096 4184 9096 4183 9054 4171 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 274DEG 62KT 4179 9076

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ076-077-087-088-230015-
WASHINGTON-HENRY-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-
514 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...

AT 509 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE KEOKUK AND
MAHASKA COUNTY LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE FURTHER WEST IN MARION
COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV
OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED 12 MILES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA.

LAT...LON 4151 9241 4151 9153 4150 9151 4147 9151
      4143 9148 4116 9149 4116 9137 4081 9137
      4081 9172 4090 9172 4090 9218 4116 9218
      4116 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 270DEG 22KT 4132 9233

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
524 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             ANAMOSA                 42.11N 91.28W
06/22/2015  E0.25 INCH       JONES              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL FELL AT ANAMOSA HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

GROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ066-222315-
CLINTON-
547 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLINTON COUNTY...

AT 546 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CHARLOTTE...OR 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...CHARLOTTE...ANDOVER...GOOSE LAKE...BRYANT...TEEDS GROVE AND
ELVIRA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4188 9058 4199 9057 4202 9020 4185 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 268DEG 36KT 4193 9043

05/87