Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS HIGHWAY 30 WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SIOUX FALLS SD. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN
EASTERN KS LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE FEATURE
TO BRING STRONG FORCING INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WRF-NMM/HRRR INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 OR 4 PM AND THEN SWEEPING ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LINE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BECOMES STRONG BUT SBCAPES ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHER CAPE. AS OF NOW THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES ALONG
BOWING SEGMENTS. OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE IN FAR NW MO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE DVN CWA THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG FORCING...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPES
2500-3000 J/KG. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EXTREME EASTERN IOWA AND INTO OUR IL COUNTIES.
TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. STRONG
CYCLONE (FOR MID AUGUST) WILL TRACK INTO NW WI BY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON
INCREASING WEST WINDS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE EXTREME EAST.

HAASE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH PASSING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE NORTH. THE COOL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 30. IN
ALL...IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A
RESPITE FROM SUMMER HUMIDITY.

COOL WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE HAVING A DEEP UPPER LOW TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. IN
FACT BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
ROCKIES...WILL FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE PLAINS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SEASONALLY STRONG DYNAMICS TO A COLD FROPA AROUND
SATURDAY. THAT FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MORE THAN 12 HOURS OF RAIN
THREAT WITH IT...BUT WITH A MODEL SPREAD ON TIMING  OUT ON DAY 5 ON
A TYPICAL LEVEL A BROAD PERIOD OF POPS REMAINS FORECAST.

FOLLOWING THIS COLD FROPA...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWEEP OVER
THE REGION WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SEASONALLY COOL DRY AIR.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

EXPECT INCREASING TSTM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. HAVE
TIMED END OF RAIN FROM 02Z-04Z TONIGHT WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN/HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
504 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
504 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY IN URBAN
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A VINTON-
QUAD CITIES-MACOMB LINE.

RP KINNEY/12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLIN                    42.00N 91.14W
08/18/2015                   JONES              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

GROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ILC071-IAC057-111-182115-
HENDERSON-DES MOINES-LEE-
334 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEE COUNTY AND DES MOINES
COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FORT MADISON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...FORT MADISON...WEST BURLINGTON...MIDDLETOWN...GULF
PORT...IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT...DENMARK...WELTER RECREATION
AREA...DES MOINES COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...BURLINGTON REGIONAL
AIRPORT...SPRING GROVE...AUGUSTA...STARR'S CAVE PARK AND
PRESERVE...CARTHAGE LAKE AND FORT MADISON MUNICIPAL ARPT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4061 9138 4066 9146 4100 9113 4083 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 224DEG 32KT 4067 9137

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             E WYOMING               42.06N 91.00W
08/18/2015  M0.25 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ILC071-IAC057-182115-
HENDERSON-DES MOINES-
351 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DES MOINES AND HENDERSON
COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BURLINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...OQUAWKA...GLADSTONE...GULF PORT...DES MOINES COUNTY
FAIRGROUNDS...BURLINGTON REGIONAL AIRPORT...SPRING
GROVE...HEAPSVILLE...STARR'S CAVE PARK AND PRESERVE...DELABAR STATE
PARK AND KINGSTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4072 9116 4072 9118 4071 9118 4072 9120
      4071 9121 4072 9121 4074 9123 4076 9127
      4106 9096 4091 9078 4091 9079 4071 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 223DEG 41KT 4079 9115

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ILC109-182130-
MCDONOUGH-
403 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MCDONOUGH COUNTY...

AT 402 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FANDON TO NEAR PITTSFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACOMB...BUSHNELL...INDUSTRY...BARDOLPH...FANDON...ADAIR...WESTERN
ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DODDSVILLE...MCDONOUGH
COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS AND PENNINGTON POINT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4028 9078 4044 9077 4059 9045 4028 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 242DEG 78KT 4038 9076 3953 9082

08