Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

June 7, 2015Warren County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this special weather statement at Jun 7, 2015, 3:12 PM CDT for Warren County, Illinois. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 7, 2015, 3:12 PM CDT (20:12 UTC)
Expired: Jun 7, 2015, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA

County Warren County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -310 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 862 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 7, 2:56 PM CDT, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 7, 2:56 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE COLD FRONT...LARGELY REPRESENTED LOCALLY BY A WIND SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST...IS NOW LOCATED FROM AROUND DBQ TO OTTUMWA.
DEWPOINTS ARE POOLED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IN THE LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE HIGH...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOOSING OUT AS
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES...AND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY AROUND 8 PM IF NOT EARLIER. SPC IS CONSIDERING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL THEREFORE BE CONCISE. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST HERE IN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH OUR
WINDS ALREADY VEERED TO THE WEST. THUS...SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH. TORNADOES DO
NOT SEEM TO BE A THREAT GIVEN OUR CWAS VEERED WINDS. IN ANY
CASE...WE WILL WALK OUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY
MID DAY MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE IN THE
EAST. MODELS ARE LIKELY HOLDING ONTO TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT. LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF THE BIG RIVER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ARE WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND...AND SEEMS A GOOD FIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING IS WEAK AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THERE IS A VERY REAL
POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT MAY COME THROUGH DRY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS ONE
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SPRINKLES OR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...

THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE IMPORTANT
THING TO REMEMBER IS THAT THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN
THE PLACEMENT OF FRONTS AND THE FORCING TO HELP GENERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

AFTER AN MVFR MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE MCS
OVERNIGHT...A FRONT IS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY...HELPING LIFT CIGS TO AROUND 5000 FT. THUS...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND I HAVE
KEPT A VCTS WORDING IN THE BRL TAF THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...ALL
SITES SHOULD BE DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. I AM
WATCHING TO SEE IF WINDS MIGHT DROP ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SPOTTY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS NOT YET IN ANY TAF.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 7, 4:44 AM CDT, 10 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-080945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
444 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD IOWA...TO
MONMOUTH ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
MORNING STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.

AFTER A LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY LULL IN THE STORM ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A DUBUQUE...TO WILLIAMSBURG
IOWA LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM DUBUQUE IOWA...TO WILLIAMSBURG IOWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ENHANCED
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS ILLINOIS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A PRINCETON...TO MACOMB LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING
QUARTER SIZE ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT TIMES...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC DETAILS
AND TIMING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

12/RP KINNEY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 7, 10:03 AM CDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W BETTENDORF          41.56N 90.49W
06/07/2015  M1.05 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

Special weather statement, Jun 7, 2:48 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILZ017-018-072015-
PUTNAM-BUREAU-
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN BUREAU
COUNTIES...

AT 248 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BRADFORD...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PRINCETON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENNEPIN...SPRING VALLEY...DE PUE...GRANVILLE...TISKILWA...BUREAU
JUNCTION...MCNABB...MC NABB...BUREAU...PUTNAM...MARK...MAGNOLIA...
STANDARD...MILO...LAKE THUNDERBIRD...LONE TREE CORNERS...FLORID AND
PROVIDENCE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4110 8936 4112 8934 4115 8933 4115 8964
      4123 8964 4124 8972 4130 8972 4133 8917
      4111 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 270DEG 31KT 4121 8962

ERVIN

Special weather statement, Jun 7, 2:49 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
249 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILZ025-026-034-035-072015-
HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-WARREN-HENDERSON-
249 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WARREN...NORTHEASTERN
HANCOCK...NORTHWESTERN MCDONOUGH AND SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON
COUNTIES...

AT 249 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RARITAN...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSEVILLE...STRONGHURST...RARITAN...LITTLE SWAN LAKE...GREENBUSH...
BERWICK...MEDIA...PONEMAH...CAMERON...YOUNGSTOWN...ORMONDE...
LARCHLAND...SMITHSHIRE AND SWAN CREEK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4063 9095 4080 9088 4092 9044 4067 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 257DEG 33KT 4074 9076

ERVIN

Special weather statement, Jun 7, 3:12 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILZ026-035-072045-
MCDONOUGH-WARREN-
312 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...

AT 311 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GOOD HOPE...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUSHNELL...GOOD HOPE...PRAIRIE CITY...LITTLE SWAN LAKE...WALNUT
GROVE...GREENBUSH...YOUNGSTOWN...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...SCOTTSBURG
AND SWAN CREEK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4068 9078 4080 9044 4055 9045 4055 9071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 250DEG 34KT 4062 9065

ERVIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 7, 2:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Delaware, Linn	65 min
Jun 7, 3:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Cedar, Delaware, Iowa, Johnson, Jones, Linn and 1 more	47 min
Jun 7, 4:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson, Johnson, Jones and 5 more	63 min
Jun 7, 5:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Louisa, Muscatine, Scott and 1 more	61 min
Jun 7, 5:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Johnson, Linn	53 min
Jun 7, 6:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Lee, Louisa and 3 more	113 min
Jun 7, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Jefferson	26 min
Jun 7, 5:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Henry, Jefferson	40 min
Jun 7, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Van Buren	64 min
Jun 7, 5:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Lee	64 min
Jun 7, 2:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Putnam	27 min
Jun 7, 2:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Warren	26 min
Jun 7, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren	35 min
Jun 7, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Hancock, McDonough	55 min
Jun 7, 5:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Scotland	33 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.