Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Quad Cities, IA

293 
WWUS53 KDVN 062110
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAC139-062119-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-150706T2145Z/
MUSCATINE IA-
410 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MUSCATINE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4133 9043 4133 9083 4145 9083 4145 9079
      4155 9078 4160 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 258DEG 29KT 4147 9063 

$$

ILC161-IAC163-062145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-150706T2145Z/
ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-
410 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCK ISLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM PRODUCED A 68 MPH WIND GUST AT 
THE MUSCATINE AIRPORT AT 337 PM.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVENPORT...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...BETTENDORF...EAST MOLINE...
SILVIS...MILAN...COAL VALLEY...BLUE GRASS...BUFFALO...ANDALUSIA...
REYNOLDS...RIVERDALE...OAK GROVE...TAYLOR RIDGE...EDGINGTON...
PANORAMA PARK...INDIAN BLUFF PARK...COYNE CENTER AND CREDIT ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 303.
 INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 8.
 INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 9043 4133 9083 4145 9083 4145 9079
      4155 9078 4160 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 258DEG 29KT 4147 9063 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RP KINNEY

693 
WWUS53 KDVN 062142
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
442 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAC163-ILC161-062151-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-150706T2145Z/
ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-
442 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY 
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. 
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT MINOR STREET FLOODING IN ROCK ISLAND AND MOLINE 
THROUGH 6 PM.

LAT...LON 4133 9043 4133 9083 4145 9083 4145 9079
      4155 9078 4160 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 260DEG 29KT 4147 9063 

$$

RP KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUD COVER HELPED
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE MID
80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 DURING THE AFTERNOON...AFTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS REFLECT A FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND HAVE MADE SOME CORRESPONDING ADJUSTMENTS IN EVOLUTION
OF POPS AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. 0.75 TO 1 INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON...WITH ISOLATED 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS IMPACTED
BY STRONG AND/OR MULTIPLE STORMS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN
TRIMMED TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AREAS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DRY TO THIS POINT. NOT EXCITED ABOVE THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WILL LIKELY BE MONITORING A FEW STORMS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 PICKED UP 1 TO 2
INCHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE HIGHEST QPF THROUGH TONIGHT MAY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS.
IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND REPEATED ROUNDS IN URBAN AREAS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO LINGER FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT COOL N/NE FLOW TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A DECAYING
NATURE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-80. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY
COMBINED WITH ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH OF
I-80 DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT
IN HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THE LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-80.

ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE DOES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL
OUT. SEVERAL MODELS PLACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN INDIANA
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. IF THIS PLACEMENT IS CORRECT...THEN ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...

THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PICTURE
WOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE FRONTAL POSITION
IS LOCATED.

IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THESE DRY PERIODS MAY BE 6
OR MORE HOURS LONG. CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE DRY WEATHER MAY OCCUR IS
QUITE LOW.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY FOR A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. LARGE SCALE SIGNALS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
AFFECTING THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

18Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 20Z TO
22Z TIME FRAME...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND LAST
TO END AT KBRL. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE
TAFS PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
322 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS PRESENTING
THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
MAY LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING WATER ON ROADS.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. LATEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS BY THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RP KINNEY/08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1001 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ001-002-007-009-015-024-
061615-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JO DAVIESS-
STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...GALENA...
FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...
ROCK ISLAND...ALEDO
1001 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...WITH HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS. BE PREPARED
FOR PONDING WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

RP KINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1101 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018-061715-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...
STERLING...ROCK FALLS...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN
1101 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. BE PREPARED FOR PONDING
WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING.

RP KINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ILC131-161-IAC031-115-139-163-183-062115-
ROCK ISLAND-MERCER-MUSCATINE-LOUISA-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-CEDAR-
316 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE QUAD CITIES AREA
AND POINTS SOUTHWEST FROM MUSCATINE TO CONESVILLE...

AT 313 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILTON TO COLUMBUS JUNCTION...AND MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVENPORT...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...BETTENDORF...MUSCATINE...ALEDO...
WAPELLO...COLUMBUS JUNCTION...DURANT...ELDRIDGE...MILAN...WILTON...
WALCOTT...BLUE GRASS...BUFFALO...ANDALUSIA...MILLERSBURG...NEW
BOSTON...GRANDVIEW AND REYNOLDS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 264 AND 304.
 INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 3.
 INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 17.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4142 9138 4142 9137 4144 9137 4166 9116
      4164 9037 4114 9073 4114 9137 4116 9137
      4116 9162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 249DEG 33KT 4151 9106 4129 9136

RP KINNEY