River Flood Warning 6, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

06Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FIRST
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT FROM TWO SEPARATE
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY BRIEF CLEARING THAT OCCURS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP.

AFTER SUNRISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A GRADUAL DECAY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY WEAK HEATING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...INTERNAL SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BETWEEN KOMA AND KSTJ. IF THIS
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...THIS STORM COMPLEX WOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT POINTS TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

DRY WEATHER DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME
BY...AS OUR EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY WEAK FLOW...AND OUR
CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN DOES NOT REQUIRE STRONG FORCING FOR RAIN TO TAKE PLACE...AS
NOTED BY THE PAST 36 HOURS...WHERE THE RAINS JUST KEEP FALLING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT AS A TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE NORTH. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
DIURNAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS...INCLUDING A PERIOD WHERE
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT. THESE MAY EVOLVE
INTO CLUSTERS...BEFORE DECAYING TO SHOWERS LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE BEST THREAT FOR RAINS DOES SEEM TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE OVER IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS SAID...FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND NO CAP...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN CWA IN SLIGHT FOR DAY 2. I
BELIEVE THAT THREAT IS LARGELY DIURNAL...AND PROBABLY TIED MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.  WITHOUT A CAP...WE SHOULD READILY USE
UP OUR CAPE...RATHER THAN GETTING THINGS TOO UNSTABLE...THUS I THINK
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED EVENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW VERY SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT CLEAR IN WHERE THE HEAVY
TOTALS WILL BE...IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED YET.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IS CONCERNING. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT...OR PRE. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THAT
COULD OCCUR IN OUR CWA. THIS TYPE OF EVENT OCCURS WITH A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...AND WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SHORT...WE WOULD HAVE SOME SUPPORT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LANDFALLING SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...SIGNS ARE NOT CONFIDENT...BUT I FIND IT TROUBLING THAT
THE ECMWF PLACES AN ACTIVE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER IOWA TO
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN
THE DAKOTAS. IN ANY CASE...THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING THIS...BUT IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.

BEYOND THIS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...HOPEFULLY RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ONE DRY DAY BEHIND IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AROUND...I HAVE NO
FAITH IN THAT PROSPECT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN....WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...OFFERS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SAID IN MANY OF OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WE MAY BE MOVING INTO A PERIOD OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT AS TO WHAT SIGNIFICANCE AND WHAT RIVERS...THAT IS YET
TO BE DETERMINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/14
WITH ISOLATED SHRA. AFT 18Z/14 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
VCSH OR VCTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. IF A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A
TAF SITE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/15 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH POTENTIALLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
508 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
508 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME...BOTH HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA...WILL FUEL STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...AND
ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH
SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL REPORTS OVER AN INCH ARE APPRECIATED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
710 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E WALCOTT             41.59N 90.70W
06/14/2015  M2.10 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0709 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N NEW WINDSOR         41.23N 90.45W
06/14/2015  M1.73 INCH       MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>065-076-077-087-ILZ001-141430-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-JEFFERSON-JO DAVIESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...FAIRFIELD...GALENA
713 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...PATCHY MORNING FOG...

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE HALF
MILE...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING AS VISIBILITIES MAY
CHANGE SUDDENLY OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
741 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W NEW WINDSOR         41.20N 90.47W
06/14/2015  M1.40 INCH       MERCER             IL   PUBLIC

            24 HR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
742 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE FREEPORT           42.32N 89.59W
06/14/2015  M1.25 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC