River Flood Warning 56, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z/29
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF
SITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 04Z/29
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-291100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COOL FRONT WILL FIRE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR
RAPIDS TO THE QUAD CITIES. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD 1 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS AND THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
AND RENEWED RISES ON AREA RIVERS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

GIBBS/RP KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ATKINS                  42.00N 91.86W
07/28/2015  M2.10 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

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