Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2015
Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this winter storm warning at Nov 21, 2015, 9:02 AM EST for 10 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 13 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 21, 2015, 9:02 AM EST (14:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 21, 2015, 10:00 PM EST
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
Counties Genesee County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 6 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 9:20 AM EST | SNOW 1.2 | Howell, MI | 4 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 9:25 AM EST | SNOW 1 | Flint, MI | 3.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 9:25 AM EST | SNOW 1.2 | 2 Ne Ann Arbor, MI | 6.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 10:20 AM EST | SNOW 2 | Brighton, MI | 5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 10:45 AM EST | SNOW 1.7 | 4 Sw Clarkston, MI | 4.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 10:50 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | West Bloomfield, MI | 5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:00 AM EST | SNOW 1 | Ypsilanti, MI | 6.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:00 AM EST | SNOW 2.5 | 5 Se Swartz Creek, MI | 5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:15 AM EST | SNOW 2.3 | 2 Ne Ann Arbor, MI | 8 HOUR TOTAL AT U OF M |
| Nov 21, 11:20 AM EST | SNOW 2.7 | Howell, MI | 6 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:30 AM EST | SNOW 1.5 | Chesterfield Township, MI | 4.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:30 AM EST | SNOW 3 | Gaines, MI | 5.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 11:45 AM EST | SNOW 2.3 | 1 E Clarkston, MI | 5.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 12:00 PM EST | SNOW 3 | 2 Ne Corunna, MI | 6 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 12:00 PM EST | SNOW 3.6 | 2 W Peck, MI | 6 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 12:30 PM EST | SNOW 2 | Port Huron, MI | 4.5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 12:57 PM EST | SNOW 2 | Eastpointe, MI | 5 HOUR TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 1:00 PM EST | SNOW 3 | 4 Sw Clarkston, MI | 7 HOUR TOTAL AT NWS WHITE LAKE |
| Nov 21, 1:00 PM EST | SNOW 3.2 | Se Flint, MI | 7 HOUR TOTAL AT FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT |
| Nov 21, 1:24 PM EST | SNOW 4.8 | Brighton, MI | 7 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 1:48 PM EST | SNOW 4.2 | 1 E Clarkston, MI | 8 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...UPDATED REPORT FROM 1145AM. |
| Nov 21, 1:48 PM EST | SNOW 4.2 | Clarkston, MI | 8 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL BALDWIN AND MAYBEE |
| Nov 21, 2:15 PM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 Wnw Grand Blanc, MI | 8 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 2:18 PM EST | SNOW 6.2 | Howell, MI | 8 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...DOWNTOWN HOWELL |
| Nov 21, 2:49 PM EST | SNOW 6.2 | Clarkston, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...UPDATED REPORT...BALDWIN AND MAYBEE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. |
| Nov 21, 2:49 PM EST | SNOW 6.8 | 4 E White Lake, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...3.8 INCHES IN 2 HRS...NWS WHITE LAKE OFFICE. |
| Nov 21, 2:56 PM EST | SNOW 8 | S Howell, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...2MI S. LIVINGSTON CO. AIRPORT...VIA FACEBOOK. |
| Nov 21, 2:57 PM EST | SNOW 4.1 | Marlette, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 3:06 PM EST | SNOW 8 | W Manchester, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 3:10 PM EST | SNOW 10 | 6 Sw Howell, MI | 9 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. |
| Nov 21, 3:15 PM EST | SNOW 7.5 | Brighton, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...UPDATED REPORT |
| Nov 21, 3:15 PM EST | SNOW 8.7 | Hartland, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 3:22 PM EST | SNOW 2 | 4 Ssw Port Huron, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...SOUTHWEST PORT HURON |
| Nov 21, 3:23 PM EST | SNOW 6.5 | W Grand Blanc, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...MUNDY TWP |
| Nov 21, 3:24 PM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Waterford, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...NEAR WILLIAMS LK AND PONTIAC LK RDS |
| Nov 21, 3:37 PM EST | SNOW 4 | Ann Arbor, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL. |
| Nov 21, 3:44 PM EST | SNOW 6.8 | Auburn Hills, MI | 9 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 3:45 PM EST | SNOW 7.5 | 1 E Clarkston, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...UPDATED REPORT. |
| Nov 21, 4:03 PM EST | SNOW 7 | 4 Ssw Oxford, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 4:04 PM EST | SNOW 8 | Grand Blanc, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 4:08 PM EST | SNOW 8.2 | Linden, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 4:10 PM EST | SNOW 8 | 2 N Addison, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...2 MILES EAST OF US127 AND US12 INTERSECTION. |
| Nov 21, 4:14 PM EST | SNOW 6 | Ortonville, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 4:18 PM EST | SNOW 7.8 | Highland, MI | 10 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 4:30 PM EST | SNOW 8 | Nne West Bloomfield, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 4:30 PM EST | SNOW 8 | W Bloomfield Hills, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...WEST BLOOMFIELD |
| Nov 21, 4:45 PM EST | SNOW 8.5 | Lakeville, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA PHONE |
| Nov 21, 4:50 PM EST | SNOW 9 | Milford, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...GM RD AND JACOLE RD |
| Nov 21, 5:00 PM EST | SNOW 6 | Bloomfield Hills, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 5:00 PM EST | SNOW 6.5 | W Grand Blanc, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...MUNDY TWP |
| Nov 21, 5:07 PM EST | SNOW 8.4 | 4 E White Lake, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...NWS WHITE LAKE OFFICE |
| Nov 21, 5:19 PM EST | SNOW 14.5 | Howell, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...DOWNTOWN HOWELL...8.3 INCHES IN 3 HRS... |
| Nov 21, 5:24 PM EST | SNOW 13.5 | Howell, MI | 11 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL. |
| Nov 21, 5:30 PM EST | SNOW 8 | Flint, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 5:30 PM EST | SNOW 12 | 5 N Manchester, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 5:32 PM EST | SNOW 5 | Farmington Hills, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 5:40 PM EST | SNOW 9.6 | Pinckney, MI | 13 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...VIA FACEBOOK |
| Nov 21, 5:53 PM EST | SNOW 7 | Salem, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 6.5 | Corunna, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL |
| Nov 21, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 9.1 | Ann Arbor, MI | 12 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL...U OF M |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 4 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 843 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 67 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -38 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 218 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
361 WWUS43 KDTX 211402 WSWDTX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 902 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TODAY... MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-212215- /O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0002.151121T1402Z-151122T0300Z/ SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND- MACOMB-WASHTENAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER... PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR 902 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY ON ROADWAYS AFTER 4 PM. * THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...CAUSING INCREASINGLY SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ047-048-053-212215- /O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0200Z/ MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW 902 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND PERSIST OFF AND ON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SAGINAW. * TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. * THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO REMAIN SLIPPERY. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ049-054-212215- /O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0200Z/ HURON-TUSCOLA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO 902 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE COURSE OF MORNING. SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. * THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ076-082-083-212215- /O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0200Z/ WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE 902 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY. SNOW WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY. * TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW EFFICIENTLY SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS VARYING ACROSS THE AREA FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 OR 2 INCHES NEAR THE OHIO STATE LINE TO AS MUCH AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. * SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ DG
3 follow-up statements
567 WWUS43 KDTX 211700 WSWDTX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...SNOW TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... MIZ082-220300- /O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0200Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ LENAWEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ADRIAN 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST ONE INCH PER HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY GREATLY...RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES IN HIGHER TERRAIN TO JUST 2 TO 4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO STATE LINE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY ON ROADWAYS AFTER 4 PM. * THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...CAUSING INCREASINGLY SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-220300- /O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND- MACOMB-WASHTENAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER... PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST ONE INCH PER HOUR DURING PEAK INTENSITY. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 11 INCHES WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY ON ROADWAYS AFTER 4 PM. * THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...CAUSING INCREASINGLY SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ047-048-053-220300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SAGINAW. * TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED. * THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO REMAIN SLIPPERY. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ049-054-220300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ HURON-TUSCOLA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS. * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. * THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ076-083-220300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ WAYNE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DETROIT...MONROE 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN AFTER 3 PM. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW NEAR LAKE ERIE BEFORE THIS HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY. * TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW EFFICIENTLY SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS VARYING ACROSS THE AREA FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 OR 2 INCHES NEAR THE OHIO STATE LINE TO AS MUCH AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. * SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS. IMPACTS... * TRAVEL WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ DG
924
WWUS43 KDTX 212032
WSWDTX
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...
MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-082-220300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/
SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-
MACOMB-WASHTENAW-LENAWEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...ADRIAN
332 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL RATE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE STRONGEST BANDS OF SNOW.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY ON ROADWAYS ON INTO THIS
EVENING.
* THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING...CAUSING INCREASINGLY SLICK ROADS.
IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY AS ROADWAYS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SNOW PACKED INTO THIS EVENING.
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
&&
$$
MIZ047-048-053-220300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW
332 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MOST COMMON
SOUTH OF SAGINAW.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
* THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW
COVERED ROADS TO REMAIN SLIPPERY.
IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY AS ROADWAYS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SNOW PACKED INTO THIS EVENING.
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
&&
$$
MIZ049-054-220300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO
332 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW
LAKE ENHANCED BANDS THIS EVENING.
* THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS.
IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY AS ROADWAYS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SNOW PACKED INTO THIS EVENING.
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
&&
$$
MIZ076-083-220300-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/
WAYNE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DETROIT...MONROE
332 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. POCKETS OF
HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE OHIO STATE LINE.
* THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SLICK ROADS.
IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY AS ROADWAYS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SNOW PACKED INTO THIS EVENING.
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
&&
$$
DG938 WWUS43 KDTX 220310 WSWDTX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1010 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-082-220415- /O.EXP.KDTX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND- MACOMB-WASHTENAW-LENAWEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER... PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...ADRIAN 1010 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * CLUSTERS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. * A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DURING THE NIGHT. IMPACTS... * UNTREATED ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE NIGHT AND FREEZES ANY SLUSHY COVERING OF SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8. && $$ MIZ047>049-053-054-076-083-220415- /O.EXP.KDTX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151122T0300Z/ MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-WAYNE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE... SAGINAW...CARO...DETROIT...MONROE 1010 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * CLUSTERS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. * A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DURING THE NIGHT. IMPACTS... * UNTREATED ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE NIGHT AND FREEZES ANY SLUSHY COVERING OF SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8. && $$ BT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 21, 8:58 AM EST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 21, 8:58 AM EST, 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
858 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPGRADING A NOTABLE PORTION OF THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING SHORTLY. MODELS HAVE LOCKED
ONTO A RELATIVELY STABLE SCENARIO IN WHICH STRONG FGEN FORCING
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS MORING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A VERY WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION AXIS THEN SWEEPING OUT
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
EXTEND ACCUMULATING SNOW A NUMBER OF HOURS PAST SUNSET AND LEAD TO
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS IN GENERAL...AND A GREATER IMPACT ON TRAVEL
AREAWIDE SPECIFICALLY.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM BETWEEN ANN ARBOR AND CORRUNA ON EAST AND
NORTHEAST ALONG THE M 59 AND I 69 CORRIDORS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE THUMB. WILL ALSO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN ADVISORY
AREAS BORDERING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 622 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
CEILINGS AND VSBYS QUICKLY LOWERING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AND INCREASES IN COVERAGE. PTK AND FNT LOOKS TO RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF WET SNOW...AND SUBSEQUENT LONGEST DURATION OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...PEAKING IN LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AROUND
HALF A FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED AT PTK/FNT...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF
SOUTH AND NORTH. SNOW TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD IN THE
LATE EVENING...WITH HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW...
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY...WITH RAIN EVEN POSSIBLY MIXED IN AT TIMES. HOWEVER...LATEST
INDICATIONS IS FOR A BIT MORE SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. PEAK OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE JUST
BEFORE 00Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOWER CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WET SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 318 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING RETURNS INCREASING ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MID LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING...GENERALLY AROUND 700MB...IS SUSTAINING THIS LEAD REGION OF
RETURNS PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE STILL BACK ACROSS IOWA. RECENT
HRRR...ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS LEAD REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN
PUSHING INTO SE MI THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-94 AND M 59 CORRIDORS.
OVERALL THIS LEAD REGION OF ENHANCED FGEN WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS SE MI EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE RETURNS...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OVERALL...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
MODEL SUITE. IN LIGHT OF RECENT OBSERVATIONS/SFC ANALYSES THE GFS
IS TOO STRONG. SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE CLEVELAND AREA AROUND 00Z /AROUND 1005MB/ BEFORE LIFTING
INTO ERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE DEEPENING TO 1000MB. RECENT SATELLITE
DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN IOWA AND NRN
ILLINOIS UNDER A REGION OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. THE UPPER WAVE OVER IOWA IS FORECAST
TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS SE MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY GOOD MID LEVEL DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 00Z /03Z ACROSS THE THUMB/ BEFORE RACING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH TOTAL QPF LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2G/KG AT 700MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT MESO SCALE ENHANCEMENT
WILL SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT SNOW WITHIN
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND/DEFORMATION REGION...LEADING TO SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HI RES SUITE GENERALLY
SUGGEST THIS AXIS ALIGNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE IRISH HILLS
/NRN WASHTENAW COUNTY TO NRN ST CLAIR COUNTY/. MUCH LESS STABILITY
IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF THIS REGION COULD HOWEVER CAUSE THIS
ENHANCED FORCING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
/SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE NEAR TERM/. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE 30S DURING THIS EVENT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE A TOUCH LOWER THAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST...SO WET BULB COOLING MAY HOLD TEMPS TOWARD
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONROE COUNTY WHERE A
DEVELOPING EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL ADVECT THE WARMER MARINE
LAYER INLAND. THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND WARM GROUND SUPPORT
FAIRLY LOW LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THIS EVENT /RANGING FROM
6 TO 11:1/.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT. THE START TIMES FOR THE TRI CITIES WILL BE
PUSHED TO LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS FORECAST
CYCLE HAVE BEEN REFINING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMS /POSSIBLY TOPPING 6 INCHES/ WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION OF THE
MOST PERSISTENT MID LEVEL DEFORMATION /ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
IRISH HILLS/. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FORCING IN THIS
REGION TO PRODUCE HIGHER ACCUMS /SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE NEAR
TERM/. GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THE STRONGEST FORCING TO BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SNOW ACCUMS
ACROSS THE TRI CITIES REGION HAVE BEEN CUT BACK A BIT /2 TO 4
INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH STILL RAISES CONCERNS THAT ACCUMS MAY
STRUGGLE ACROSS SRN WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE FORCING THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS STILL HOWEVER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS REGION...SO 2 TO 4
IN ACCUMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AS LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO RESIDE IN THE -11 TO -13
C RANGE...COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK...AND MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. WESTERLY COLD FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATING CAPES UP
AROUND 50 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MORE FOCUSED I-94 BAND ATTEMPTING TO SET UP....BUT
LIKELY STRUGGLING DUE TO TURBULENT DAYTIME WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD GET CLASSIC
SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION PUSH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH 925-850 MB
AVERAGE TEMP RISING TO -5 C OR SLIGHTLY WARMER BY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST JET STREAM (100+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES/PV CENTERS WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES....WITH WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL (700-500 MB)
SUPPORT IS LOCATED.
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NOVA
SCOTIA AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE END THE WORK WEEK BASED OFF THE 00Z EURO/GFS.
MARINE...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL TRACK IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW...REACHING GALES OVER MUCH OF THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND NEAR THE TIP OF NORTHERN THUMB REGION.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TOMORROW AND BECOMING WEST...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG FETCH OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...WITH JUST SLIGHT DECREASE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BEGINS TO WARM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-
076-082-083.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
053.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ362-
363-462.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ463-
464.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ421.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ444.
&&
UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 21, 3:44 AM EST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 344 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-220845- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 344 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-220845- LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 344 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). SC
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 21, 4:34 AM EST, 4 hours 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 434 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-211145- SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB- WASHTENAW-WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON... HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT 434 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT... LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATING IS POSSIBLE ON THE ROADS BY 8 AM. THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. SC
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 9:58 PM EST | Gale Watch | DTX | 6 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:50 AM EST | Gale Warning | DTX | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:50 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | DTX | 36 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2015Every winter storm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.