Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

888 
WHUS73 KDTX 120302
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING...

.SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...REACHING 25 TO 35 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
AND THEN TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. THIS
LOW WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST GALES FOLLOWING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE WITHIN THE BETTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD PUNCH...AND HAVE UPGRADED TO STORM
WARNING. WITH HIGHER END SOUTHWEST GALES/LOW END STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN...AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS
THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 4.5 FEET BELOW
CHART DATUM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SAGINAW BAY WILL ALSO BE
IMPACTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
18 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM...AND LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THERE AS WELL.

A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END GALES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS...AS MUCH COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...GENERATING INSTABILITY SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS...AND ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGHING OVER LAKE HURON.
GALE WARNINGS WHERE EXTENDED FOR SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH HALF.

LHZ421-422-121115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.151112T0900Z-151114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.151112T1400Z-151113T0500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

* WATER LEVELS...EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 18 INCHES BELOW 
  CHART DATUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-121115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.151112T0900Z-151112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.151113T1700Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441>443-462>464-121115-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.151112T0900Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-121115-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.151112T1100Z-151113T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.151112T1400Z-151113T1500Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

* WATER LEVELS...THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 
  4.5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LCZ460-121115-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.151112T1100Z-151113T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
1002 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

447 
WHUS73 KDTX 120916
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS...

.SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED THIS MORNING RANGING IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE HURON. THE
NOVEMBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FORECASTED TO LIFT FROM FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN/MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z...TO JUST EAST OF THE STRAITS
BY 18Z TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST GALES OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS FOLLOWING AND CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINS LIKELY
FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE WHERE STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...AS WELL AS...SAGINAW BAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MARINE WATERS. COLD AIR PUSHING DOWN TO THE NORTH OF A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONGER NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON FROM THE STRAITS
DOWN TO STURGEON POINT.

LHZ421-422-121730-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.151112T1400Z-151113T0500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

* WATER LEVELS...EXPECTED TO DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES BELOW
  CHART DATUM DURING THE LATE MORNING TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-121730-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.151113T1700Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441>443-462>464-121730-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-121730-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.151112T1100Z-151113T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.151112T1400Z-151113T1500Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST THURSDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST THURSDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

* WATER LEVELS...THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
  APPROXIMATELY 5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM BY THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LCZ460-121730-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.151112T1100Z-151113T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
416 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST THURSDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST THURSDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

602 
WHUS73 KDTX 121455
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS...

.A NOVEMBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FORECASTED TO LIFT FROM
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...TO JUST EAST OF THE
STRAITS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH
SOUTHWEST GALES OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS FOLLOWING AND CONTINUING OVER
THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINS LIKELY FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE
WHERE STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...AS WELL
AS...SAGINAW BAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY STORM ON FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MARINE WATERS. COLD AIR PUSHING DOWN TO THE NORTH OF A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONGER NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON FROM THE STRAITS
DOWN TO STURGEON POINT.

LHZ361-362-130300-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151112T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.151113T1700Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-130300-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151113T0500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 42 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

* WATER LEVELS...EXPECTED TO DROP TO APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES BELOW
  CHART DATUM BY LATE THIS MORNING.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441>443-462>464-130300-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-130300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151113T1500Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

* WATER LEVELS...THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
  APPROXIMATELY 5 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM BY THIS EVENING.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LCZ460-130300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
955 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

DG

943 
WHUS73 KDTX 122058
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...SOUTHWEST GALES TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTH TO
THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERN LAKE ERIE ENCROACHING
ON STORM FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES. EXPECT THESE BASIC CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND ONLY EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. 

GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION...WILL ONLY HAVE TO ADJUST A FEW HEADLINES
WITH THIS FORECAST. WILL BE CANCELING THE LOW WATER STATEMENT FOR
SAGINAW BAY AS WATER LEVELS ARE JUST NOW EDGING BELOW CHART DATUM
AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THESE LEVELS TO BASICALLY HOLD INTO THE
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST.

ALSO...WILL DOWNGRADE THE STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ST CLAIR TO A GALE
WARNING AS NEXT PERIOD OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING LOOKS TO ONLY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME 3 TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER ON AVERAGE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUATION OF THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WARNING AS GUSTS APPROACH
STORM FORCE AT TIMES AT THE VERY LEAST.

A SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EXITING STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS. COLD
AIR PUSHING DOWN TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LCZ460-131000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 42 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-131000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151113T0500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
LOW WATER ADVISORY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-131000-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.151113T1700Z-151114T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.GL.W.0046.151113T1900Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441>443-462>464-131000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 36 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 47 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-131000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151114T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T0300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
358 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WATER LEVELS...WILL DROP TO ABOUT 3 FEET BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK
  FOR SAFE NAVIGATION ON WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. THIS
  WOULD PUT WATER LEVELS 30 INCHES BELOW CHART DATUM AT TOLEDO AND
  60 INCHES BELOW RECENT WATER LEVELS. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ON
  FRIDAY BUT MAY NOT RISE MUCH ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE
  NAVIGATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY NEED
  TO BE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE STORM WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 47 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

DG

126 
WHUS73 KDTX 122334
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTH TO
THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. EXPECT THESE BASIC CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND ONLY EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

A SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EXITING STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS. COLD
AIR PUSHING DOWN TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LEZ444-131145-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-151114T0200Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO DROP 30 INCHES BELOW LOW WATER DATUM AND
  60 INCHES BELOW RECENT WATER LEVELS. WITH LOW WATER CONDITIONS
  PERSISTING UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ363-441>443-462>464-131145-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-131145-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST 
  FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-131145-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.151113T1900Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST FRIDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-131145-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151114T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
634 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1137 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET AS CLEAR SKIES
GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT (BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE)...FOLLOWED BY
VERY STRONG WINDS DURING THURSDAY...AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TOMORROW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS. THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
FRAME...BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP
LAYER MIXING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS...WHICH LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...DTW...YIP...AND DET...WHERE
BRIEF/ISOLATED GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 12-14Z TIME
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS /220-240
DIRECTION/ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 433 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAPIDLY DEEPENING CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT STRONG UPPER JET FORCING
NOW LIFTING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL INITIATE A
SIZABLE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OF THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL COMMENCE
AS THE SYSTEM RACES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO
ROUGHLY THE STRAITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT
LOCALLY FOR THE DAYULIGHT PERIOD TODAY WILL SIMPLY BE A PERIOD OF
INCREASED UPPER HEIGHTS AS THE FLOW BUCKLES DOWNSTREAM OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS.  PLENTY OF DRY AMBIENT AIR WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH SOME
PESKY MID CLOUD NOW DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN MAY ENCROACH NORTHERN
SECTIONS BY MIDDAY.  MODEST MIXING POTENTIAL UP THROUGH 925 MB UNDER
THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURES TODAY.  HIGHS MID AND UPPER 50S.

WING OF PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL ASCENT EMERGES ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF
THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST TODAY...
FAVORABLE EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE
LOCKING ONTO THE TREMENDOUS HEIGHT FALL GRADIENT. THE STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LODGE A SUBSTANTIAL COMPONENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THIS BACKGROUND FORCING FIELD...NETTING A
LEAD CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS THAT OUTPACES THE INBOUND STRONG COLD FRONT
BY 4-5 HOURS.  UNIFORM MODEL CONSENSUS IN CENTERING THIS MOISTURE
AXIS OVER THE REGION 06Z-10Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  DIMINISHING
MID LEVEL STABILITY /850-750 MB/ WILL PRESENT A LIMITED WINDOW/
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. COLD FRONT
ITSELF AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 11-12Z THURSDAY
MORNING.  SOME HI RES SOLUTIONS LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TRAILING
LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO ALIGN WITH THIS ROBUST
FEATURE.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
AUGMENT/EHHANCE THE RAPIDLY ASCENDING MIXED LAYER ALONG THE FRONTAL
INTERFACE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
GUSTS /IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH/.  THE ONSET TIMING OF THE HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTS AT 11Z TO CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
ASSESSMENT ON WIND POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...SEE LONG TERM SECTION.

LONG TERM...

ATTENTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WAS PLACED SQUARELY ON THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DESCRIPTION OUTLINING THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND EVENT CAN BE FOUND
IN PREVIOUS DTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. THE 11.00Z NWP SUITE
ARRIVED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM PRIOR THINKING. THE
BIGGEST TRENDS IDENTIFIED IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD JOG OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH THE BROAD LOW CENTER
DOWN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION IN
SURFACE COLD FRONT TIMING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SEPARATE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TOMORROW...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 55 MPH. THE
FIRST OPPORTUNITY...WILL BE TIED TO ANY SHALLOW LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE INITIAL COLD AIR SURGE/SURFACE
THETA E COLD FRONT. THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS AND ALIGNS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORABLY TO THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW.

THE INITIAL SFC THETA E GRADIENT/COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW BETWEEN 11-14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STEADFAST IN GENERATING A POCKET OF INSTABILITY IN
THE 900-800MB LAYER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT SORT OF LIGHT
THE CAMS WILL SHED ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY...THE MOST RECENT 4KM-SPC WRF-
NMM DOES HINT AT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AT HOUR 36. THE MOST
DISCONCERTING ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM...EVEN EARLY ON IS THE DEPTH OF
THE STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEEP
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
45-55 KNOTS WILL RESIDE IN THE COLUMN BETWEEN 1000 AND 5000 FT AGL.
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z...THEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD AS
THE OCCLUSION/WARM CORE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. INCREASING
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW THE DEEPER COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO FILTER ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE COMPROMISED WITH A LACK OF
REAL DRY AIR...BUT A STRONG MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF UP TO
45 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WITH THESE FACTORS IN
CONSIDERATION FELT THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN WIND
REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH. AS A RESULT...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR FROM 11Z THURSDAY TO 03Z FRIDAY.

MODEL DATA CAME IN WITH AN EVEN FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE TRAILING
WAVE...ENTERING INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AT 21- 00Z
THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN SCREAM THIS ENERGY THROUGH SEMICH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. WILL SAY THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY HOW THE WIND EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND MIDLEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVENT AND SUBSIDENCE/ASCENT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW A VERY GOOD MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE NIGHT. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE
FRIDAY FORECAST AS FUTURE SHIFTING OF THE SOLUTION SPACE WILL
OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE IMPENDING WAVE INTERACTIONS. LATEST THINKING
IS THAT WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DRAGGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO THE
STRAITS BY THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...REACHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
GUSTS TO REACH STORM FORCE ACROSS THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ST CLAIR. A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE PRIMARY
STORM ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF GALES FOR SOME OF
THE MARINE ZONES AS COLDER UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     422-441>443-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
402 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120915-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
402 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR HEAVIER SHOWERS TO BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE OR FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
DETAILS.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120915-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
402 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR HEAVIER SHOWERS TO BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR. GALE WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. REFER TO THE
LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).