Gale Warning 48, NWS Detroit, MI

828 
WHUS73 KDTX 182049
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALES CONTINUE OVER LAKE HURON TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GALES WILL
DROP OFF OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE
EVENING...AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH WAVES BUILDING UP TO 14 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. A LULL IN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL
THEN OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO HUDSON BAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN OCCURRING
THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE ONCE
AGAIN...AIDED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...THIS TIME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON...AND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR. THE LARGEST WAVES TOMORROW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...WHERE HEIGHTS WILL REACH UP TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

LHZ421-441-191000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0047.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING TONIGHT...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING THURSDAY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST THURSDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-191000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0047.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST
  WEDNESDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-462-463-191000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-191000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING TONIGHT...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ443-191000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST THURSDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST THURSDAY.  

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-191000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
349 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST THURSDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EST THURSDAY.  

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HLO

512 
WHUS73 KDTX 182136
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALES CONTINUE OVER LAKE HURON TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GALES WILL
DROP OFF OVER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE
EVENING...AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH WAVES BUILDING UP TO 14 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. A LULL IN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO INTO HUDSON BAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN OCCURRING THURSDAY.
THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE ONCE
AGAIN...AIDED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
GALES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON...AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR. THE LARGEST WAVES
TOMORROW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE HURON...WHERE
HEIGHTS WILL REACH UP TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

LHZ422-190945-
/O.UPG.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441-190945-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-190945-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-462-463-190945-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ443-190945-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-190945-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
436 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

511 
WHUS73 KDTX 190256
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SOUTHWESTERLY GALES INTO THURSDAY...

.A LULL IN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO HUDSON
BAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN OCCURRING
THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE ONCE
AGAIN...AIDED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...THIS TIME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON...AND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR. THE LARGEST WAVES TOMORROW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF LAKE HURON...WHERE HEIGHTS WILL REACH UP TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

LHZ421-422-441-191615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-191615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ443-191615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-191615-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0136.000000T0000Z-151119T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0137.151119T1300Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-462-463-191615-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151120T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
956 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 44 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST 
  WEDNESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS WITH DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE. MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION ONSET
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE AROUND THE NOON
HOUR...THEN PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. DATA SUPPORTS MVFR
CIGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AXIS...THEN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WINDSHIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH WINDGUST
POTENTIAL THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WINDSHIFT.

FOR DTW... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN UNTIL SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
RESTRICTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. INCREASED SOUTHWEST WIND MA
LEAD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE MERIDIONAL AXIS OF THETA E REMAINS ON TRACK TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AGGRESSIVE 1000-500 MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECASTED EVOLUTION OF THIS THETA E AXIS
SUPPORTS A DISJOINTED AND UNPHASED STRUCTURE EARLY...WITH THE LOW
LEVELS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN NEEDING LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO
SETTLE INTO PLACE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CAN REACH THE GROUND.
INCIDENTALLY...THE BEST PROXY FOR TIMING IS UNDER THE 700 MB THETA E
AXIS...DURING AN APPROXIMATE 6 HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN 17-23Z. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORICAL RAINFALL WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN A DEEP LAYER FROM 3.5 TO 30 KFT AGL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING DECENT BUT BRIEF FRONTAL FORCING
BETWEEN 850-800 MB. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
FEW DRY POCKETS WORKING THROUGH THE PLUME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND .15 TO .20 OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (UP TO .30 INCH) FOR THE DETROIT METRO AREA
SOUTHWARD TO THE OHIO BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM RICHER LOW LEVEL THETA E THAT LIFTS OUT OF IN/KY AND CLIPS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. THE CATEGORICAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 2-3Z. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT BETWEEN 05-10Z. WENT WITH A SCATTERED MENTION FOR THOSE...AS
THERE IS CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE.

THE GRADIENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ALREADY SUPPORTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EARLY MORNING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
MODELS SUGGEST THE PGF REGIONALLY TO HOLD SERVE FOR TODAY POSSIBLY
INCREASING A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS
IMPINGING UPON THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. DEEPER TURBULENT MIXING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 40 MPH. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND GREATER STATIC STABILITY ALIGNED WITH THE RAIN SHOULD THEN
OFFSET ANY PRECIPITATION DRAG OR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...STILL EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF A RAIN COOLED
NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD THEN SUPPORT
SURFACE WINDS TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE LAST
ITEM GARNERING PARTICULAR ATTENTION IS WHAT AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A HIGH WIND POP WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. IT APPEARS THAT SOME CHANCE EXISTS FOR SOME
WINDGUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE GOOD THING WITH THIS PARTICULAR
EVENT AND WHAT IS BEING OFFERED BY THE CAM OUTPUT IS THAT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH SUGGESTS
SOME OPPORTUNITY TO MONITOR SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL.

LONG TERM...

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES NEAR HUDSON BAY. GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS EASILY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE, BUT A RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WIND FIELD AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR GUSTS TO EVEN REACH 30 KTS. NONETHELESS, A CHILLY AND
BREEZY DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL RACE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, FUELED BY THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV OVER THE PAC NW AT 06Z THIS MORNING. NOTABLY
COLDER AIR WITH THIS WAVE WILL DEEPEN THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES. BETTER DYNAMICALLY FORCED
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DURING THIS TIME, BUT WITH A WEAK AMBIENT WIND
FIELD AGAIN PRECLUDES CONCERNS OVER WIND GUSTS. H85 TEMPS FALL TO
-7C THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN WELL-MIXED
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PERSISTENCE OF THE MODERATE WSW GRADIENT, THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
SKEPTICISM WITH COLD GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE MET/MAV/RAW NAM12 WHICH
ALL SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 20S. EVEN THE NOTORIOUSLY COLD GEM SUGGESTS
MID 30S AND THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 40. AS A RESULT, GAVE OVERNIGHT
LOWS AN UPWARD BOOST OF A FEW DEGREES.

COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY WHILE SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT FORCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE. SUNNY SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID 40S, WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREA SKIES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SNOW FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS A COMPLEX ONE
BUT APPEARS MAINLY CONTINGENT ON TWO DEVELOPMENTS. 1) THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 00Z FRIDAY SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST
DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA. THE INCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN A SMALL UPPER JET THAT WILL IN TURN AMPLIFY THIS
FEATURE AND FAVOR A SUBSEQUENT RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT IS DURING THIS PERIOD THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE AND A SMALL-SCALE BUT MODERATE INTENSITY DEFORMATION BAND
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA. 2) THE POWERFUL JET THAT WILL
BE PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SPECIFICALLY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE IS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVELY MODELED WITH TIME. WHERE THE NWP ONCE FEATURED A
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US POSITIVELY
FEEDING BACK ON DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
THERE IS NOW AN INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT AND AN EVER-
SHRINKING UPSTREAM RIDGE. IN FACT, THE GFS HAS LOST ALL MEANINGFUL
HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND HAS SHIFTED THE
STORM NORTH AS A RESULT. SUFFICIENT WAVE SEPARATION STILL EXISTS
WITHIN THE EURO AND GEM ATTM TO FAVOR A STORM TRACK OVER LAKE ERIE,
BUT THE TRENDS IN THE EC SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE SAME DIRECTION
WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO THE NW. CONFIDENCE IN
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY REMAINS LOW AS A RESULT.

MARINE...

SUSTAINED GALES OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND GUSTS TO GALES ELSEWHERE
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE PROLONGED
SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 13
FEET AND MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS OF 17 TO 22 FEET...HIGHEST WAVES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND STURGEON POINT. WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW GALES BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN GUSTING TO GALES OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCLUDE
SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB...SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE BREAK BETWEEN GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9 HOURS...LONG ENOUGH TO FORGO EXTENDING
THE CURRENT WARNING TO INCLUDE BOTH EVENTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS BUILD IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ361>363-462-463.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ442-443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
137 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-191045-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
137 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-191045-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
137 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SEE THE
FORECAST FOR DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SEE THE
FORECAST FOR DETAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).