Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Des Moines, IA

788 
WWUS53 KDMX 221048 RRA
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAC063-147-221100-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-150622T1100Z/
PALO ALTO IA-EMMET IA-
548 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR PALO ALTO AND EMMET COUNTIES...

AT 548 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SWAN LAKE...OR
7 MILES EAST OF ESTHERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESTHERVILLE...EMMETSBURG...LOST ISLAND LAKE...IOWA LAKE...SWAN
LAKE...FIVE ISLAND LAKE...HIGH LAKE...INGHAM LAKE...SILVER LAKE...
OKAMANPEDAN LAKE...ARMSTRONG...GRAETTINGER...RUTHVEN...RINGSTED...
WALLINGFORD...AYRSHIRE...GRUVER...CYLINDER...DOLLIVER AND CURLEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9444 4313 9444 4293 9448 4301 9491
      4350 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 271DEG 57KT 4340 9468 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

LEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE OVERALL FORECAST SETUP FOR TODAY IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THAT
OF SATURDAY...JUST TWO DAYS AGO. ONCE AGAIN A LARGE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS BARRELING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS
HOUR...AND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AND 9 AM THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AND SOUTH
OF THIS SYSTEM...OVER MOST OF IOWA...IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRESENT. THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL LEAVE IN
ITS WAKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN IOWA...WITH A COOL FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
ITS HEELS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS WE REACH PEAK
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON THE
BOUNDARY/IES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AGAIN EXACTLY AS OCCURRED TWO DAYS AGO...AND ONCE AGAIN WITH
A THREAT OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AS OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS.
HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A BIT TODAY AS STIFF
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PUMP IN HOT AND HUMID AIR EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY/IES...MAKING FOR A VERY MUGGY DAY ONCE
AGAIN WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE MORE OR LESS A COOLER VERSION OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START OVER SD AT 12Z TUE...MAKING IT TO CENTRAL IA
BY 00Z WED. WITH OVERNIGHT CAA NOW ALL BUT A LOCK...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPS NOW MAKING
IT DOWN TO 12C ACROSS OUR NORTH AND AROUND 16C IN OUR SOUTH. SOURCE
REGION OF KINL AND KGGW 00Z SOUNDINGS INITIALIZE WELL WITH THESE
TEMPS. HAVE THUS DROPPED MIN AND MAX TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FROM PVS
FCSTS. MODELS LIKELY HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES FOR TUE PM
AND ARE OVERALL BRINGING IN POPS TOO FAR NORTH TOO FAST.

GREAT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF BOUNDARY OF THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA...NEARING THE DSM
METRO BY 12Z WED. PWATS WITH THIS SETUP ARE SLATED TO BE IN THE
1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND 0-6KM MIXING RATIOS TO BE UP TO 8 G/KG.

INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THAT TODAY/S 00Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOWING AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A BOUNDARY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE THROUGH IOWA. THIS SCENARIO RESEMBLES THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGES FROM THIS PAST SATURDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE
ON THE FEATURE...BUT THE TIMING/LOCATION IS WAY OFF AS THE NAM AND
GFS ARE A SOLID 12 HOURS APART...WITH THE NAM BEING FASTER. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS...SVR WX THREAT DEPENDENT ON WHERE BOUNDARY IS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. AS OF NOW...LOOKING LIKE NW PART OF CWA MAY BE
UNDER THREAT. HOPEFULLY 12Z RUNS WILL BRING BETTER RESOLUTION.

FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HUGE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
WEST WILL SHIFT DMX CWA INTO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS STILL NOT ABLE TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
LOCATION SO HAVE LEFT SOME BLANKET POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. 850 MB
TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/S VALUES. DIFFERENCE BTX TUESDAY AND
THIS WEEKEND IS MORE CLOUD COVER LOOKING LIKELY SO HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AGAINST GUIDANCE...WHICH OFFERED A SOLUTION
CLOSER TO TUESDAY/S TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MOISTURE SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH ANY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMING INTO THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA IN THE
MORNING AFFECTING KALO AND KMCW WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
431 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-230945-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
431 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AT TIMES TODAY.

KOTENBERG