Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Des Moines, IA

865 
WWUS53 KDMX 040043
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAC081-091-109-151-040053-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150504T0045Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-HUMBOLDT IA-KOSSUTH IA-HANCOCK IA-
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS...
HUMBOLDT...SOUTHERN KOSSUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4303 9385 4291 9393 4291 9397 4285 9397
      4282 9399 4266 9422 4288 9459 4291 9455
      4291 9444 4301 9444 4314 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 286DEG 24KT 4295 9442 

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL MAKE THE
WEATHER MORE INTERESTING IN BOTH THE NEAR AND EXTENDED FUTURE.
WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT
APPROACHING NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA. STILL SLIGHTLY CAP BUT THIS HAS BEEN
ERODING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT
TO BE IN MN AND FAR SE SD CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. SOUNDINGS HAVE A SOMEWHAT INVERTED V DISPLAY WITH HIGH LCL
AND LFCS BUT FAIRLY DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-45KTS. WITH THESE PARAMETER... GENERALLY ANTICIPATE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE INTO NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING. THE LINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD WEAK SURFACE LOW IN FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT AND ANTICIPATE THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...LIKELY
AS OUTFLOW SURGES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
NEAR 60 BUT A DECENT COOL PUSH FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLE CLEARING
NEAR DAYBREAK SHOULD ALLOW VALUES TO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAIN
CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AND LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM AND THEN SLIGHTLY MORE
WEIGHT TOWARDS THE ECMWF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY LAYS UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING AND THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO REMAIN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT
EXITING EASTERN IOWA BY 12Z. SOME LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO 15Z...BUT THE 03.12Z SPCWRF KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PUSHES INTO
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPAWNS THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY AS EARLY AS 18Z. QUESTIONABLE WHETHER SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY RECOVERS ENOUGH PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
AND STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR PRESENT TO SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS.
PLUS...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MAIN
CONCERN FOR HAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WRT TO SEVERE
THREAT. OTHER CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGE RISE INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH WHICH IS STILL IN THE
75 PERCENTILE FOR PW CLIMATOLOGY FOR MAY. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND DECENT WARM LAYER
CLOUD DEPTHS TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. INCREASED QPF
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY SURGES NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING MONDAY AND
KEEPS THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PAST 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. NAM AND ECMWF FURTHER NORTH PLACING THE BOUNDARY ALONG
OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH STORM POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THIS LINE AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. HENCE...LOWERED POPS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...CONTINUED
TO GO DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

ECMWF/NAM SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH 500MB TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW ENTERING IOWA WEDNESDAY THAN THE GFS. THINKING FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
CUT BACK ON POPS AND WENT COMPLETELY DRY GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS
THE STATE BY THURSDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. LATE IN
THE WEEK...DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE
STATE OVER THE WEEK...BUT AT LEAST MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS
POTENTIALLY DRIER BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT TO SAG ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN STORMS BUT ALSO OF CONCERN ARE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  STRONG NON CONVECTIVE WINDS AT 010-030
BETWEEN 25G37KTS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.  SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 14-22Z THEN WITH PEAK HEATING AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA STORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-042100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-042100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...AND AGAIN AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IAZ033>039-044>050-042100-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED OR TWO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

KLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
557 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAZ004>006-015-016-023-024-033-034-040100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...
LAKE MILLS...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...BRITT...KANAWHA...POCAHONTAS...
LAURENS...ROLFE...FONDA...GILMORE CITY...HUMBOLDT...SAC CITY...
LAKE VIEW...ODEBOLT...WALL LAKE...SCHALLER...EARLY...
ROCKWELL CITY...MANSON...LAKE CITY...POMEROY
557 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

STRONG SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. BE PREPARED NOT ONLY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER AND STRONG WINDS FROM STORMS BUT
ALSO FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 ENE RINGSTED          43.33N 94.40W
05/03/2015  M1.00 INCH       KOSSUTH            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL
            COVERING MOST OF THE GROUND

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             WEST BEND               42.96N 94.46W
05/03/2015  M1.00 INCH       PALO ALTO          IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WEST
            BEND

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM