Frost Advisory 1, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES AFFECTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BRING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OF BIGGER CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT OF HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WITHIN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS AND AIDED BY RELATIVELY
DEEP MIXING...AND DRY CONDITION OF PARTICULARLY CROPS AND
AGRICULTURAL FIELDS. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TEMPS AND
ASSOCIATED HEADLINES WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AT ONSET WITH POLAR JET
DRIVING INTO BASE OF GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE MO VALLEY ALLOWING LOWS TONIGHT
TO DIP INTO THE 30S...MAINLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG NE...CONDITIONS FOR FROST WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
SW TOWARD THE NISH VALLEY SO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR FAR
WRN SECTIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT WOULD RATHER SAVE FREEZE HEADLINES
FOR FRI NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS
FRI WILL BE FAIRLY COOL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
FIRE DANGER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FRI AS WELL WITH BRISK NW
WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH...BUT NOT TOO EXTREME OR COMPARABLE
TO TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPS.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO IA FRI NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER ERN IA BY 12Z SAT. EXPECT FROST OR FREEZING
HEADLINES IN SOME FORM BUT NOTHING YET UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR. ONE LAST SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE MO VALLEY STARTING
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH RESULTANT MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEST SO
CLOUDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN POSSIBLY PROHIBITING
RADIATIVE COOLING AND MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIRMASS MAY
LIMIT SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT TOO SO WILL WAIT AND SEE ON
TRANSITION AREAS BETWEEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE FREEZING CONDITIONS NE
AND POTENTIAL FROST CONDITIONS SW.

PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF CLOSED
LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO APPROACHING ERN
PACIFIC TROUGH. INITIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT IN OUR FLIP TO SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MON WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 40 MPH DURING MIXING BASED ON SOUNDINGS. THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK MON INTO TUE BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS. STRONGER MID LEVEL KINEMATIC
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR
NOW. LIFT SHOULD EXIT LATER WED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND WEAK BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEYOND 12Z...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS
30KTS OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 18Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN
AFTER 00Z...REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...AIDED BY FAIRLY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW DEWPOINTS WITHIN A HIGH PLAINS
AIRMASS BUILDING INTO IOWA...AGAIN FURTHER SUPPRESSED BY MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON...WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT AND POSSIBLY BELOW 25 PERCENT AT TIMES. WHILE THE WIND AND
RH VALUES ARE CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLDS...NON
AGRICULTURAL FUELS REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THERE
IS CERTAINLY AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY...PARTICULARLY
RELATED TO CROPS AND FIELDS WHERE HARVESTING IS TAKING PLACE...BUT A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OTHER PRODUCTS AND
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ADAMS-AUDUBON-
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-SAC-TAYLOR.

&&

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB
FIRE WEATHER...LEE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-151500-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...
LAKE MILLS...NORTHWOOD...MANLY...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...BRITT...
KANAWHA...MASON CITY...CLEAR LAKE...POCAHONTAS...LAURENS...
ROLFE...FONDA...GILMORE CITY...HUMBOLDT...EAGLE GROVE...CLARION...
BELMOND...HAMPTON...PARKERSBURG...CLARKSVILLE...SHELL ROCK...
GREENE...APLINGTON...ALLISON...DUMONT...WAVERLY...SAC CITY...
LAKE VIEW...ODEBOLT...WALL LAKE...SCHALLER...EARLY...
ROCKWELL CITY...MANSON...LAKE CITY...POMEROY...FORT DODGE...
WEBSTER CITY...IOWA FALLS...ELDORA...ACKLEY...GRUNDY CENTER...
REINBECK...CONRAD...DIKE...WELLSBURG...WATERLOO...CEDAR FALLS...
DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...
TAMA...TOLEDO...TRAER...DYSART...GLADBROOK...AUDUBON...EXIRA...
GUTHRIE CENTER...PANORA...BAYARD...CASEY...PERRY...WAUKEE...
ADEL...DES MOINES...NEWTON...GRINNELL...ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD...
STUART...ADAIR...FONTANELLE...WINTERSET...EARLHAM...INDIANOLA...
NORWALK...CARLISLE...PELLA...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...CORNING...
CRESTON...OSCEOLA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA...BEDFORD...
LENOX...NEW MARKET...MOUNT AYR...LAMONI...LEON...CORYDON...
SEYMOUR...ALLERTON...HUMESTON...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD
338 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

...STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY BECOMING VERY
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO FALL TO VERY
LOW VALUES IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR BURNING OR ANY FIRES THAT START AS THEY MAY
BE ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN FIELDS OR AREAS WHERE
SURFACE VEGETATION HAS CURED. ANY BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
AND THOSE ENGAGING IN HARVESTING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

LEE