Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Des Moines, IA

417 
WGUS73 KDMX 061425
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
925 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAC099-127-061815-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150706T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL IA-JASPER IA-
925 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
MARSHALL AND JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 920 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN IN 
PORTIONS OF MARSHALL COUNTY. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY 
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF MARSHALL 
AND JASPER COUNTIES.  

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED AT THIS TIME...THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THE 
HIGHEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOW WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO 
LATE MORNING. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
MARSHALLTOWN...COLFAX...BAXTER...ROCK CREEK LAKE...LE 
GRAND...MELBOURNE...SULLY...KELLOGG...GILMAN...ALBION... 
LYNNVILLE...LISCOMB...LAUREL...HAVERHILL...LAMBS GROVE...OAKLAND 
ACRES AND GREEN MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9305 4165 9325 4221 9309 4221 9277
      4151 9276

$$

COGIL

637 
WGUS73 KDMX 061606
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1106 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAC099-127-061613-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150706T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL IA-JASPER IA-
1106 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MARSHALL AND JASPER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  
WITH FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDING...THEY NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A 
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.  

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE 
AFTERNOON...THEREFORE BE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
POSSIBLE RENEWED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4151 9305 4165 9325 4221 9309 4221 9277
      4151 9276

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR TO HOUR HAS SET UP IN MORE
OF A WEST TO EAST FASHION WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND SLOWER STORM
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING COULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE TOWARD MID MORNING AND STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA/SW MN WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK TO THE SSW. STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
IN THE NEAR TERM. ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL RAIN/STORMS POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD
ALSO ANTICIPATED...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT. OTHERWISE MAIN CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A POSSIBILITY
WITH VERY HIGH PWATS. CURRENT SPC MESO DATA SUGGESTING PWATS NEAR
2.0 INCHES NEAR THE FRONT...WITH THE SOUNDINGS INDICATING SIMILAR
VALUES ACROSS THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION COUPLED WITH HIGHER FZLVLS. HOWEVER DO EXPECT
STORM MOTIONS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND NOT TRAINING...THAT ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PAST WEEK OF
DRIER WEATHER...AND NEARLY MATURE CROPS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BISECT IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FAVOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. MODELS PROG 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS
BRINGING A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH MU CAPE AND
LAPSE RATES ALSO SUPPORTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND
EXIT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE MIDWEST TUESDAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO IOWA. FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE
REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IOWA.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEESIDE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE DAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAINFALL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...BEERENDS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-070900-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
356 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
159 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAZ044-060730-
CRAWFORD IA-
159 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...NICKEL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...

AT 158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF UTE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF DENISON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHLESWIG...CHARTER OAK...KIRON AND RICKETTS.

LAT...LON 4217 9567 4221 9557 4221 9530 4215 9526
      4214 9528 4200 9560 4210 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 235DEG 29KT 4213 9555

BEERENDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
657 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

IAZ059-060-061400-
DALLAS-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...WAUKEE...ADEL...DES MOINES
657 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO
AREA THROUGH 9 AM CDT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE. A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH
HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 9 AM CDT. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN
LOW AREAS COULD CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

MJB