Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. MOST SITES HAVE WARMED UP
TO ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

THE UPPER MIDWEST WAS BEING DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WIND RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO WELL
BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM UP RELATIVELY
FAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING OF TENTH OF AN INCH
OR SO.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. THERE
WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE
NW FORECAST COULD BEGIN TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...ITS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS PUSHES A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FA WITH WAA. OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA...NEUTRAL
ADVECTION OCCURS. COMBINED...THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH SMALL POPS IN NW WI LATE. MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHICH AFFECTS THE
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. USED A CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS. ON
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FA AND STALLS...WHILE THE SFC LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND HAVE SMALL POPS FROM CDD TO ELO AND EAST TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR FROM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AND UPPER TROF DEPARTS TAKING FORCING WITH IT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NW ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. ALOFT...A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR WITH THE HANDLING OF
MOISTURE/FORCING/QPF. HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FA IN THE VCNTY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHILE AN UPPER TROF DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE STILL IS ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO
WARRANT LOW POPS ALONG THE BORDER AND SMALLER POPS OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE
TO THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE FA
WITH COLDER AIR AND WITH BETTER FORCING AS THE DIGGING TROF MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONGST THE MODELS AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.
SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS ONE MORE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FA.
AGAIN...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHICH IS NOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. A NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
HAVE SOME POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL ISSUES BECOME QUITE
LARGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HAVE A BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS.
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE THE NW FLOW
ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS AWAY...A SW FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS. VFR EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
22Z WHEN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARRIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
SFC BOUNDARY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW AT BRD/HYR. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 01Z AND VFR RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10   3  17  13 /   0  50   0  20
INL  12   0  18  15 /  10  30  30  30
BRD  10   3  20  14 /  20  50   0  10
HYR  11   3  19  11 /   0  60  10  10
ASX  15   6  20  14 /   0  60  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140-
     141.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF

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