Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKLEY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  53  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
503 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-291430-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
503 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAY CONTAIN SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

LSZ121-140>148-291430-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
503 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
SUNDAY.

CLC

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
856 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ012-290215-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
856 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES...

AT 856 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER EASTERN
BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAGANAGA LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAGANAGA LAKE...LITTLE SAGANAGA LAKE...SEA GULL LAKE...ALPINE LAKE...
EASTERN BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...GABIMICHIGAMI LAKE...
SAWBILL LAKE...THOMAS LAKE...KEKEKABIC LAKE...GNEIS LAKE AND KNIFE
LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4824 9088 4824 9084 4818 9084 4818 9081
      4787 9087 4797 9130 4813 9118 4815 9114
      4818 9109 4819 9103 4822 9098 4823 9092
      4825 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 292DEG 21KT 4803 9114

STEWART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
917 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ012-021-290245-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
917 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES...

AT 917 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER EASTERN
BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GUNFLINT LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAGANAGA LAKE...GUNFLINT LAKE...LITTLE SAGANAGA LAKE...SEA GULL
LAKE...LONG ISLAND LAKE...NORTH LAKE...CHEROKEE LAKE...POPLAR LAKE...
BRULE LAKE...GNEIS LAKE AND CASCADE LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4821 9083 4818 9084 4818 9080 4816 9080
      4816 9078 4809 9075 4810 9064 4812 9056
      4810 9057 4809 9055 4811 9046 4787 9059
      4790 9108 4823 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 293DEG 24KT 4800 9096

STEWART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ011-290315-
NORTH ST. LOUIS-
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN BOUNDARY WATERS...

AT 939 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRANE
LAKE...OR 28 MILES EAST OF VOYAGEURS NATIONAL PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROOKED LAKE...LAKE AGNES AND LOON LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4836 9206 4833 9205 4832 9200 4827 9201
      4824 9197 4825 9195 4823 9196 4824 9189
      4821 9186 4821 9182 4808 9195 4828 9230
      4832 9231 4836 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 303DEG 27KT 4837 9223

MCLOVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ012-290315-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTIES...

AT 943 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAGANAGA LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAGANAGA LAKE...ALPINE LAKE...BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA
WILDERNESS...GABIMICHIGAMI LAKE...THOMAS LAKE...KNIFE LAKE...ALICE
LAKE AND KEKEKABIC LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4789 9109 4794 9138 4808 9130 4808 9125
      4816 9114 4818 9109 4819 9103 4822 9098
      4823 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 277DEG 17KT 4801 9123

STEWART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
951 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MNZ012-021-290315-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-
951 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COOK
COUNTY...

AT 950 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER EASTERN
BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GUNFLINT LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUNFLINT LAKE...EAGLE MOUNTAIN...LONG ISLAND LAKE...NORTH LAKE...
CHEROKEE LAKE...SAWBILL LAKE...BRULE LAKE...CASCADE LAKE AND POPLAR
LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4810 9056 4810 9052 4781 9056 4787 9093
      4810 9088 4811 9077 4809 9075 4810 9064
      4811 9062 4812 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 277DEG 17KT 4797 9080

STEWART