Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

August 17, 20154 counties in Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this special weather statement at Aug 17, 2015, 8:47 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 17, 2015, 8:47 PM CDT (01:47 UTC)
Expired: Aug 17, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS

Counties Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Stanton County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -140 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1710 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 17, 6:31 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 17, 6:31 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
631 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

A shortwave trough and associated upper level speed max around 90kt,
is forecast to move across western Kansas tonight bringing a cluster
of thunderstorms. Short term models bring a variety of solutions for
thunderstorm chances with the best chances west of Dodge City
tonight. Northwesterly flow aloft will help push thunderstorms from
Colorado and across mainly western Kansas overnight with lesser
chances east of Dodge City. Will range storm probabilities from
around 60 percent west, to 30 to 40 percent east of Dodge City for
the best guess. A few storms could become severe mainly far west
toward to the Colorado border, then mainly become non-severe after
sunset with the best instability far west. The main severe threats
are quarter size hail and winds near 60 mph. The storms should be
coming out of eastern Colorado around 7 pm, then to near Dodge City
by 10 to 11 pm, then end at Medicine Lodge by 6 to 8 am. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with south winds of 5 to
15 mph.

For Tuesday, an upper level trough will continue to move across the
Plains pushing a cold front across western Kansas. The cold front is
forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by around noon,
then near Medicine Lodge around 7 pm. Some storms could develop with
the front mainly east of Dodge City in the afternoon, some possibly
severe. The front will shift south winds to the north at 10 to 20
mph. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s north of the cold
front to near 90 in parts of south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

For Wednesday, a strong upper level trough will be moving east
across the Upper Midwest and Missouri Valley region. Some lingering
storms will be mainly east of Dodge City on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. With cooler surface high pressure in place, highs will be
in the mid 70s.

For the period of Thursday into early next week, northwesterly upper
level flow will transition to more westerly flow aloft by later in
the work week. Another strong upper level wave is forecast to push
across the Northern Plains on Saturday into Sunday morning with an
associated cold front and small chances for thunderstorms across
western Kansas. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s
Thursday, upper 80s on Friday, around 90 on Saturday, around 80 on
Sunday behind a cold front, then back to the mid 80s for Monday.

Overnight lows will be only in the low to mid 50s Wednesday and
Thursday mornings under cooler surface high pressure, then warm back
into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

A line of thunderstorms are expected to move out from eastern
Colorado this evening and affect the GCK terminal somewhere
between 03-06Z then possibly the DDC terminal between 05-08Z.
These storms will bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions to
the GCK and DDC terminals. As of now, storms look to remain south
of the HYS terminal with VFR conditions continuing. Winds will
generally be from the south southeast direction becoming light
and variable after sunset. The only exception to this will be
ahead and along thunderstorms where gusty conditions will be
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  84  55  75 /  50  20  20  20
GCK  66  81  54  75 /  60  10  20  20
EHA  65  82  55  74 /  60  10  20  20
LBL  68  85  57  75 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  67  81  55  76 /  40  40  20  20
P28  70  89  59  75 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 17, 11:35 AM CDT, 9 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-181645-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 /1035 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER 8 PM. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT BUT THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH
HAIL AS LARGE AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 17, 8:47 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
847 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

KSZ061-062-074>076-180230-
GRANT KS-KEARNY KS-HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-HASKELL KS-
847 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...
STANTON...KEARNY...GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 930
PM CDT/830 PM MDT/...

AT 847 PM CDT /747 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELL SPRINGS TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRITCHETT...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ULYSSES...LAKIN...SYRACUSE...JOHNSON CITY...DEERFIELD...MANTER...
COOLIDGE...KENDALL...BIG BOW...THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR AND HICKOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DODGE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10110 3783 10110 3774 10109
      3773 10103 3745 10119 3739 10143 3739 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 309DEG 26KT 3899 10107 3750 10294

HOVORKA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 17, 9:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney, Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton and 1 more	47 min
Aug 17, 9:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton	51 min
Aug 17, 10:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Morton, Stanton and 1 more	46 min
Aug 17, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Seward, Stevens	49 min
Aug 17, 11:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton, Morton, Stanton	44 min
Aug 17, 11:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Haskell, Meade, Seward	47 min
Aug 17, 11:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Seward, Stevens	45 min
Aug 18, 12:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Gray	43 min
Aug 18, 12:17 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Stanton	6 hr
Aug 18, 12:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Clark, Meade	53 min
Aug 18, 1:54 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Hamilton, Kearny	6 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.