Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR
THE STRONGER STORMS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
AFFECTED BY STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL UP INTO THE
90S(F) WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F IN SOME
LOCALES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
HEAT INDICES OF 105 COULD BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY AS THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS IS
PROJECTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL. GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AS A PREVAILING LEE
SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 30C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP NEAR THE I-
70 CORRIDOR. STILL, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES YET CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF HAYS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WITH WINDS
NEAR KHYS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 6-12KT. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST SOUTH OF HAYS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THAT AREA BY 02Z.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT
KDDC AND KGCK THIS EVENING WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
AFTER 04-06Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 100  72 102 /  50  20  20  10
GCK  69  99  71 101 /  50  40  40  10
EHA  69  99  70 101 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  71 100  72 102 /  40  20  20  10
HYS  72  99  72 102 /  50  30  40  10
P28  75 101  75 102 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-066-
081-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
LARGER THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
MAINLY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
830 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

KSZ065-079-080-260215-
EDWARDS KS-PAWNEE KS-KIOWA KS-
830 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN
STAFFORD...NORTHWESTERN PRATT...EDWARDS AND NORTHERN KIOWA COUNTIES
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARFIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARNED...KINSLEY...LEWIS...BURDETT...OFFERLE...GARFIELD...ROZEL...
BELPRE...SANFORD...FELLSBURG...FRIZELL...CENTERVIEW...ZOOK AND
TROUSDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9955 3820 9957 3825 9907 3774 9901
      3771 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 350DEG 19KT 3803 9927

GERARD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>