Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE CLIMBS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE
FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL FOCUS
JUST OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH WHERE ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. AS CLEARING ALLOWS
LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THEN POTENTIALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, ANYTHING STRONGER
IS LESS LIKELY WITH NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH, THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE FOCUS
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACCORDINGLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
CAPPING WEAKENS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
INCREASING INSTABILITY, INCLUDING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG, COULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER
EXTENT, THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD FRIDAY
EVENING SUGGESTS THE SLIGHTLY HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

SLIGHT WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TURNS THE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S(F) TO THE LOWER 60S(F), LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR 90F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A
WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDER LATE MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S(F) TO
NEAR 100F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
90S(F) AGAIN MONDAY IN SPITE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS SOMETIME DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE THE HAYS AREA COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IS NOT REAL HIGH BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT THE TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  87  70  96 /  30  30  30  10
GCK  63  89  69  98 /  30  40  30  10
EHA  63  91  68  97 /  40  30  30  10
LBL  65  88  69  96 /  40  30  30  10
HYS  63  89  71  98 /  30  30  30  10
P28  67  88  71  93 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD

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