Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A
NORTHWEST FLOW MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A SOMEWHAT COHERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INDICATED BY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, THERE WAS A
SMALL MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL WAS BEING REPORTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH OF THE NCEP WRF MODELS (THE ARW CORE AND THE NMMB CORE) HAVE A
FAIRLY GOOD 9-HR FORECAST VALID 21Z OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS, SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS MODEL SOLUTION.

INITIALLY, WE WILL SEE SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 21Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. ANOTHER FAIRLY LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO...PERHAPS A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT MCS. THE
TWO NCEP WRF MODELS SHOW A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN
THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME, REACHING THE WEST CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES
SOMETIME AFTER 03Z. THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 96 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEMISE OF THE
MCS AFTER 06Z OR SO. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN AN MCS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR SUSTAINING A MCS AFTER 06Z WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH WEAKER DEEP SHEAR. WE WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS MAINLY WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS, EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 (LIKELY POPS), BUT WE WILL
DECREASE POPS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY
THAT THE MCS WILL ENTER A DECAYING MODE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES
IN THE MID 80S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY WE WILL
GET WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG A PASSING WEAK
FRONT, BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. SUMMER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK WITH 90S CONTINUING. THERE
MAYBE A CHANCE OF STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK WAVES MOVE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK FINE FOR NOW,
WHICH HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ELKHART TO NEAR HAYS EARLY THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WILL
HIGHLIGHT A PERIOD TSRA AT DDC FROM 0Z TO 01Z AND FOLLOW THIS WITH
VCTS THROUGH 03Z. AT GCK AND HYS THE CHANCES FOR EVENING STORMS
NEAR THE AIRPORTS WILL END A HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO ROLE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INSERT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MAINLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FRIDAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER A
PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  85  61  87 /  60  30   0   0
GCK  67  85  61  87 /  50  10   0  10
EHA  66  85  61  88 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  68  87  62  87 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  66  83  60  85 /  70  20   0  10
P28  72  87  62  87 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
449 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
449 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH, AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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