Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW KS THOUGH NRN
MISSOURI WAS SEPARATING AIRMASSES WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND COOLER MOIST/LOWER CLOUD BASE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE COOLER
AIR, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AT THE EDGE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT, ALL WITH SLOW NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE,  THE UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP LINE CLUSTERS OR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY, WITH THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 22 UTC, WHICH MAY BE LARGELY DUE TO
INCREASING SBCAPE AND MUCAPES ALONG A MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AXIS. A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND VERY STRONG CAPE SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
SOME BRIEF DIME TO NICKEL HAIL SWATHS COULD OCCUR WITH STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS BRING A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY GENERATING
LOCALIZED STRONG LIFT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE RECENT
ECMWF AN NAM RUNS HAVE FOCUSED THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER
WEST, AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED AS SUCH HOWEVER HIGH POPS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONVECTION IS LIKELY NEAR THE HYS TERMINAL (POSSIBLY NEAR GCK AS
WELL) BETWEEN 23 AND 03 UTC, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LIFT NORTH WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PROVIDING ADEQUATE LIFT FOR RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GCK TERMINAL BETWEEN 12
AND 15 UTC, WEAKENING FARTHER NORTH. CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT PROBABLY BE LOWEST DURING THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  68  57  80 /  70  70  70  30
GCK  55  66  55  79 /  90  90  60  20
EHA  53  69  51  80 /  80  90  50  20
LBL  56  68  56  82 /  90  90  60  20
HYS  57  71  58  78 /  70  60  70  40
P28  59  74  60  78 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
508 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  TUESDAY...
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY WEST OF HAYS TO DODGE
CITY LINE.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
434 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ062-042215-
KEARNY KS-
434 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KEARNY COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN KEARNY
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10143 3818 10146 3826 10111 3800 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 262DEG 14KT 3811 10135

GERARD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
547 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

KSZ078-088-042330-
FORD KS-CLARK KS-
547 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 547 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF MINNEOLA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEOLA AND BLOOM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 10009 3739 10009 3739 10010 3747 10010
      3748 10011 3760 10013 3762 9986 3725 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 171DEG 19KT 3733 10000

GERARD