Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE OR JUST EAST
OF A HAYS, DODGE, TO LIBERAL LINE SPREADING EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MOIST LOWER LEVELS, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, 40+ KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR,
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000, AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNSTABLE, A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES,
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT CONFINING
STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN END BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE OBSERVED TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH, THE REMAINS OF A SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO.

LIGHT WINDS AND COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. IT COULD WIND UP BEING
COLDER THAN THIS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO
UNDERGO AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW DROPPING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
WOBBLING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THIS TREND, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
THEN SETTLE DOWN TO 10-15 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KDDC AND KHYS
AS THE FRONT PASSES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  66  42  66 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  45  66  40  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  46  64  40  67 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  49  66  42  66 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  44  69  39  69 /  10   0  10  10
P28  52  68  43  66 /  50  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-130930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
418 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  MONDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/?N=HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAWYER                  37.50N 98.68W
04/12/2015  E60.00 MPH       PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

KSZ081-090-130145-
PRATT KS-BARBER KS-
747 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES EAST OF AETNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDICINE LODGE...SHARON...ISABEL AND AETNA.

LAT...LON 3700 9873 3700 9891 3708 9900 3756 9847
      3739 9846 3738 9835 3714 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 225DEG 52KT 3708 9886

KRUSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
757 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 N MULLINVILLE        37.75N 99.47W
04/12/2015  E50 MPH          EDWARDS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

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