Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Dodge City, KS

August 4, 2015Lane County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 4, 2015, 5:46 PM CDT for Lane County, Kansas. It was in force for 59 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 4, 2015, 5:46 PM CDT (22:46 UTC)
Expired: Aug 4, 2015, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Lane County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 4, 5:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	2 Nne Dighton, KS
Aug 4, 5:55 PM CDT	HAIL 2	3 E Dighton, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 4, 1:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 517 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -120 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1094 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

682 
WUUS53 KDDC 042246
SVRDDC
KSC101-042345-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0239.150804T2246Z-150804T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF DIGHTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DIGHTON AND ALAMOTA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 10030 3829 10024 3827 10025 3827 10050
      3859 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 322DEG 20KT 3854 10041 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

2 follow-up statements

548 
WWUS53 KDDC 042258
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSC101-042345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-150804T2345Z/
LANE KS-
558 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY...

AT 557 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DIGHTON...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DIGHTON AND ALAMOTA. 

AT 550 PM...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DIGHTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 10030 3829 10024 3827 10025 3827 10050
      3859 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 346DEG 19KT 3847 10042 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

715 
WWUS53 KDDC 042326
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSC101-042345-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-150804T2345Z/
LANE KS-
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY...

AT 626 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ALAMOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DIGHTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 10035 3829 10024 3827 10025 3827 10050
      3859 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 320DEG 22KT 3838 10037 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 4, 3:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 3:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 4, 4:13 AM CDT, 13 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
413 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 /313 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEAR WAKEENEY, AND NESS CITY, TO HAYS
AND THE LA CROSSE AREAS AFTER 4 PM AND INTO THE EVENING. LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

06

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 4, 5:15 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KSZ030-031-042300-
ELLIS KS-TREGO KS-
515 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TREGO AND
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF WAKEENEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAKEENEY...OGALLAH AND RIGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DODGE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9935 3885 9986 3911 9998 3913 9996
      3913 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 308DEG 13KT 3915 9984

UMSCHEID

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 4, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane, Scott	55 min
Aug 4, 5:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Trego	45 min
Aug 4, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Lane	32 min
Aug 4, 6:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Trego	59 min
Aug 4, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness	66 min
Aug 4, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Trego	59 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.