Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 17, 2015Rush County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2015, 9:05 PM CDT for Rush County, Kansas. It was in force for 16 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 17, 2015, 9:05 PM CDT (02:05 UTC)
Expired: Jul 17, 2015, 9:21 PM CDT
In force: 16 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Rush County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 17, 9:05 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Rush Center, KS	TREE LIMBS DOWN, RESIDENTIAL FENCE DAMAGE AND A WINDOW BROKE AT THE COOP ELEVATOR. TIME ESTIMATED.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1843 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2467 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 8.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

240 
WUUS53 KDDC 180205
SVRDDC
KSC165-180300-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0212.150718T0205Z-150718T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
905 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 905 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
  TIMKEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
           HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA CROSSE...OTIS...BISON...RUSH CENTER...TIMKEN AND SHAFFER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9903 3837 9922 3845 9944 3870 9906
      3870 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 239DEG 49KT 3848 9923 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

KRUSE

1 follow-up statement

742 
WWUS53 KDDC 180221
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
921 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

KSC165-180231-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0212.000000T0000Z-150718T0300Z/
RUSH KS-
921 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN RUSH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3843 9903 3837 9922 3845 9944 3870 9906
      3870 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 239DEG 49KT 3859 9900 

$$

KRUSE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 5:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 5:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
550 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE COMMON WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE
12Z NAM MODEL STILLS SHOWS LOTS OF CONVECTION BY 7 PM TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH THE HRRR, HOWEVER OTHER MODELS
SHOW ONLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACCORDING TO
THE 4KM NAM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CHANCES TO COVER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH 60KT SHOWING AT
200MB. ALSO LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE VERY MOIST TROPICAL
PLUME RIDING UP FROM THE BAJA REGION AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND
KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 WITH
THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF DODGE
CITY BY 7 PM. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
AROUND 100 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FOR SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 25 MPH. MUCH
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S AT HAYS TO THE LOW 90S
AT DODGE AND 98 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

FOR MONDAY, VERY MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING. WILL BACK OFF ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND
WEST TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY, A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS AROUND 90. SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND 100 TO 105 AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST THIS EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGE LIES IN THAT THERE IS NOT A TRULY
PREFERRED OR HIGHLY LIKELY AREA TO EXPECT STORMS TO CARRY PREVAILING
CONDITIONS. PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE
PREVAILING WIND AT ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND TAF UPDATES ARE
LIKELY THOUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME IN ABSENCE OF STORMS OR
OUTFLOW, PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE, EFFECTIVELY
ENDING THE GUSTS AROUND SUNSET, WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  71  92 /  30  10  30  30
GCK  71  99  69  91 /  20  20  40  30
EHA  71  99  69  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  72 100  72  93 /  30  10  20  20
HYS  74  97  71  86 /  30  20  30  40
P28  76 101  75  98 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 4:12 AM CDT, 16 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
412 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
412 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND NICKEL TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

32

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N KISMET              37.22N 100.70W
07/17/2015                   SEWARD             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN.

&&

MR

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:05 PM CDT, 2 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
705 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     KISMET                  37.21N 100.70W
07/17/2015  E55 MPH          SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

&&

MR

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 NW HAYNE              37.11N 100.82W
07/17/2015  E0.75 INCH       SEWARD             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MR

Special weather statement, Jul 17, 7:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
737 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

KSZ046-065-180115-
PAWNEE KS-RUSH KS-
737 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN RUSH
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 737 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ASH VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARNED...RUSH CENTER...TIMKEN...ASH VALLEY...SHAFFER AND NEKOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 9899 3821 9954 3853 9955 3850 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 218DEG 61KT 3834 9921

KRUSE

Special weather statement, Jul 17, 8:48 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
848 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

KSZ046-065-180230-
PAWNEE KS-RUSH KS-
848 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHERN
RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTH OF ALBERT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHAFFER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OTIS...BISON...RUSH CENTER...TIMKEN AND SHAFFER.

LAT...LON 3823 9905 3842 9949 3858 9903 3826 9903
      3826 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 240DEG 49KT 3837 9902

KRUSE

Local storm report, Jul 17, 9:04 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
904 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N LIBERAL             37.12N 100.94W
07/17/2015                   SEWARD             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IRRIGATION SYSTEM FLIPPED AROUND A HALF MILE
            SOUTH OF INTERSECTION AT ROADS E AND 9.

&&

MR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 17, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Meade	37 min
Jul 17, 7:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Meade, Seward	3 hr
Jul 17, 7:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	3 hr
Jul 17, 7:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	38 min
Jul 17, 8:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Rush	42 min
Jul 17, 10:33 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Pawnee, Rush	9 hr
Jul 17, 10:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Meade, Seward	9 hr
Jul 18, 5:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Barber	59 min
Jul 18, 6:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Pratt	19 min
Jul 18, 6:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Clark	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.