Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 14, 2015Edwards County, Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2015, 2:40 AM CDT for Edwards County, Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 38 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2015, 2:40 AM CDT (07:40 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2015, 3:18 AM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Edwards County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 14, 2:55 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	5 Ese Radium, KS	TREE LIMBS 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE BLOWN DOWN BY WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 60 MPH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 15 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 993 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3246 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

086 
WUUS53 KDDC 140740
SVRDDC
KSC047-145-185-140830-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0195.150714T0740Z-150714T0830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 240 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR
  LARNED...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LARNED...GARFIELD...HUDSON...BELPRE...SEWARD...ASH VALLEY...
  RADIUM...ZOOK AND FRIZELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 9917 3825 9932 3835 9909 3835 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9847 3809 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 240DEG 49KT 3816 9911 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

FINCH

1 follow-up statement

375 
WWUS53 KDDC 140818
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KSC047-145-185-140827-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-150714T0830Z/
PAWNEE KS-STAFFORD KS-EDWARDS KS-
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN
STAFFORD AND EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3793 9917 3825 9932 3835 9909 3835 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9847 3809 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 240DEG 49KT 3842 9855 

$$

FINCH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 12:31 AM CDT, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 12:31 AM CDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

CAMS LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND NMM SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL TROUGH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN ZONES (30-40 PERCENT) AND LOWER SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL
TAPER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
IN SUCH AS WAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. DCAPE IS STILL FORECAST, SO SOME OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THERE SHOULD
BE A MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY BY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 60S
WEST TO 70S EAST.

FOR TOMORROW, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE, BUT DO
HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN INITIAL APPROXIMATION.
THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SOME LOW
END SEVERE EVENTS. AGAIN, THE MOSTLY LIKELY THREAT IS OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE TOO. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S, ALTHOUGH
A FEW LOW 100S CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS HEAT
IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS, WILL CREATE HEAT ADVISORY HEAT INDEX
AGAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BARBER
COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT CAN ADJUST/CANCEL/OR EXPAND
AS DEEMED FIT VIA 00Z NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN, SOME WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S. FOR THURSDAY ONWARD, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED/ISOLATED. THE SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS LIKE FINE FOR NOW
FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR STORMS LATE NEXT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 0530Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE DDC AND GCK
TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT, WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING
CRITICAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION AND WHEN/IF ANOTHER
MCS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE THIS THREAT IS IN THE 18 TO
24 HOUR TIME FRAME OF THE TAF, WE WILL DEFER THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST TO THE 12Z OR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WHEN THERE IS HOPEFULLY
MORE CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER THREATS FOR THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  97  69  96 /  40  30  30  20
GCK  68  95  68  97 /  50  40  40  20
EHA  68  96  68  97 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  69  99  69  97 /  40  30  30  20
HYS  71  94  70  96 /  50  40  40  30
P28  74  99  73  98 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ090.

&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 4:05 AM CDT, 22 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
405 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER, SO FAR, IS FORECAST
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 102 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO KINSLEY
TO COLDWATER LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
96. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, BUT THE STRONGEST STORM MAY
PRODUCE UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LIMITED BOTH DAYS,
HOWEVER A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 13, 9:40 PM CDT, 5 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

KSZ063-077-140330-
GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-
940 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FINNEY AND NORTHWESTERN
GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 940 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTH OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY.

LAT...LON 3795 10096 3814 10098 3822 10048 3794 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 267DEG 17KT 3804 10088

GERARD

Special weather statement, Jul 13, 10:31 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1031 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

KSZ063-064-077-078-140415-
HODGEMAN KS-FORD KS-GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-
1031 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...
NORTHWESTERN FORD...EAST CENTRAL FINNEY AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1031 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF CHARLESTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALVESTA.

LAT...LON 3791 10065 3809 10062 3807 10004 3780 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 275DEG 22KT 3799 10052

GERARD

Local storm report, Jul 13, 10:40 PM CDT, 4 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1040 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N CHARLESTON          37.95N 100.56W
07/13/2015  M78 MPH          GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRJ

Local storm report, Jul 13, 11:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1149 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND GST     JETMORE                 38.08N 99.89W
07/13/2015  E60 MPH          HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 12:39 AM CDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KSZ063-064-077-078-140630-
HODGEMAN KS-FORD KS-GRAY KS-FINNEY KS-
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...
NORTHWESTERN FORD...EAST CENTRAL FINNEY AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1239 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF INGALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DODGE CITY...CIMARRON...JETMORE...INGALLS...HOWELL AND KALVESTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3776 10064 3817 10036 3815 9980 3768 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 275DEG 25KT 3793 10043

GERARD

Local storm report, Jul 14, 1:05 AM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
105 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N CIMARRON            37.87N 100.36W
07/14/2015  M51.00 MPH       GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO OCCURRING AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

GERARD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 7:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Hodgeman	53 min
Jul 13, 8:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ford	49 min
Jul 13, 9:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney	50 min
Jul 13, 10:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Gray	44 min
Jul 13, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman	50 min
Jul 13, 11:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Gray, Hodgeman	46 min
Jul 14, 12:22 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Finney	6 hr
Jul 14, 12:39 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Gray, Hodgeman	51 min
Jul 14, 1:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Hodgeman	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.