Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Dodge City, KS

May 27, 2015Finney County, Gray County, Hodgeman County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 27, 2015, 7:18 PM CDT for Finney County, Gray County, Hodgeman County, Kansas. It was in force for 57 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2015, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2015, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Finney County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 27, 7:27 PM CDT	HAIL 1	8 Nw Kalvesta, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 9 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 27, 2:26 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1663 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1042 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 421 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.6
Supercell composite: 20.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

564 
WUUS53 KDDC 280018
SVRDDC
KSC055-069-083-280115-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0112.150528T0018Z-150528T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
718 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
  KALVESTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
           HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KALVESTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3804 10066 3822 10037 3800 10010 3780 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 304DEG 16KT 3806 10040 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 27, 7:13 PM CDT, 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 7:13 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
713 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  61  77 /  80  60  70  50
GCK  59  81  58  79 /  60  40  50  30
EHA  58  80  56  79 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  60  81  60  80 /  50  40  50  40
HYS  61  79  60  78 /  60  60  70  50
P28  64  79  65  78 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 1:40 PM CDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-281845-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  MONDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 27, 6:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TORNADO          13 N KALVESTA           38.24N 100.31W
05/27/2015                   FINNEY             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

UMSCHEID

Local storm report, May 27, 6:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             3 S SUBLETTE            37.44N 100.85W
05/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JFINCH

Local storm report, May 27, 6:31 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
631 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             TICE                    37.51N 100.71W
05/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

Local storm report, May 27, 6:58 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
658 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TORNADO          3 ENE KALVESTA          38.06N 100.22W
05/27/2015                   HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 27, 7:08 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             10 NNE HICKOK           37.70N 101.16W
05/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

Local storm report, May 27, 7:10 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TORNADO          3 NE SUBLETTE           37.51N 100.81W
05/27/2015                   HASKELL            KS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY A STORM CHASER

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Hodgeman	44 min
May 27, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray	50 min
May 27, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman	54 min
May 27, 8:06 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness	6 hr
May 27, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Gray, Meade	27 min
May 27, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Gray	17 min
May 27, 9:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ford	37 min
May 27, 9:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Hodgeman	44 min
May 27, 9:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Lane	12 hr
May 27, 9:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Meade	27 hr
May 27, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Edwards	28 min
May 27, 10:00 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Haskell	27 hr
May 28, 12:27 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness	9 hr
May 28, 1:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Stanton	46 min
May 28, 2:18 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Meade, Seward, Stevens	7 hr
May 28, 3:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Kearny	33 min
May 28, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	49 min
May 28, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Scott	47 min
May 28, 4:31 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Scott	29 min
May 28, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Morton, Stanton	18 min
May 28, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Kearny	50 min
May 28, 4:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DDC	Finney, Scott	18 min
May 28, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Kearny, Lane, Scott	36 min
May 28, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Lane, Scott	47 min
May 28, 5:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Trego	43 min
May 28, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Morton	33 min
May 28, 5:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Kearny, Scott	40 min
May 28, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness	61 min
May 28, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Hamilton, Kearny	42 min
May 28, 6:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Ness	43 min
May 28, 6:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney, Hodgeman, Ness	48 min
May 28, 6:43 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DDC	Finney, Kearny, Scott	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.