Areal Flood Warning 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
624 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

As an upper level shortwave trough tops the ridge across the central
Plains tonight, a cold front will slowly drop southward across
western Kansas. The cold front will be near Great Bend to Dodge City
and Hugoton by morning then near Medicine Lodge by Sunday late
afternoon. Much of the higher moisture will be in back of the front
into tonight with around 3000 J/kg CAPE forecast and mid level winds
around 20 to 30kt. Could be enough shear and instability to get some
brief supercells going especially as you go north with the better
mid and upper winds. SPC outlook has the area from around Dighton to
Garden City and Johnson City and west in a slight risk of severe and
that looks reasonable for some large hail up to golf ball and strong
winds. May need to shift it also into the Hays area with the better
upper winds. Current thoughts are some thunderstorms will form along
the frontal boundary after 4 or 5 pm from near Johnson to north of
Garden and towards Hays, then begin to spread more south and east as
the night progresses. Could reach Dodge City around midnight then
after midnight the areas of thunderstorms should weaken. One
negative for storms late this afternoon is the 700mb temps are
around 16C and fairly warm. South winds will decrease this evening
ahead of the front, then become light and variable near the frontal
boundary or outflow boundary later tonight. Overnight lows will be
around 70, except the warmest in the Medicine Lodge area of around
75.

For Sunday, more northern Plains shortwaves will continue to knock
down the warm ridge across the southern Plains with the cold front
advancing to near Medicine Lodge by evening. High temps could be
around 100 at Medicine Lodge again ahead of the front with cooler
upper 80s to lower 90s in back of the front. Will also hang on to
some 20 to 30 percent chances for thunderstorms along and north of
the cold front. Storms could be marginally severe.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

Upper level warm ridging rapidly builds back into the Rockies and
just west of Kansas as a large upper trough digs into the Great
Lakes and eastern U.S. Western Kansas stays under a fairly weak
northwesterly flow aloft. Cooler high pressure will dominate
southwest Kansas into much of next week with a slow warming trend.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 on Monday, mid to
upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, around 90 on Thursday and Friday,
and lower to mid 90s by next Saturday. Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 60s through the period.

Thunderstorm chances lower as the cold front heads more south of
Kansas on Sunday night and Monday with mainly scattered
thunderstorms west of Dodge City into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

There will be a prolonged period of thunderstorm activity this
evening and into the overnight hours across much of southwest
Kansas, including the GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals. It is very
difficult to time when the best chance for the greatest impacts
will be at the terminals, so we will keep a fairly long period of
VCTS going this evening and through the overnight hours and adjust
as needed in the very short term. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will wane after 09Z early Sunday morning with winds generally
light at less than 12 knots for much of the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  93  69  90 /  30  30  40  10
GCK  69  91  68  89 /  50  30  30  10
EHA  69  92  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
LBL  72  95  70  89 /  40  30  40  20
HYS  71  89  69  87 /  40  30  30  10
P28  75  99  73  91 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SHAFFER           38.50N 99.10W
08/08/2015                   RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            3 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES FELL.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

KSZ061-062-090030-
KEARNY KS-HAMILTON KS-
640 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...WESTERN
FINNEY AND SOUTHERN KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT/630 PM MDT/...

AT 639 PM CDT /539 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF KENDALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKIN...DEERFIELD AND KENDALL.

LAT...LON 3803 10153 3800 10110 3799 10110 3775 10138
      3780 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 221DEG 19KT 3780 10149

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

KSZ062-063-090030-
FINNEY KS-KEARNY KS-
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND
NORTHEASTERN KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF DEERFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRIEND.

LAT...LON 3808 10114 3813 10136 3825 10128 3825 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 221DEG 19KT 3813 10119

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TORNADO          5 NE JETMORE            38.13N 99.82W
08/08/2015                   HODGEMAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            A STORM CHASER TWEETED A PICTURE OF A SMALL
            LANDSPOUT TORNADO AT THIS APPROXIMATE
            LOCATION. IT LASTED ABOUT FIVE MINUTES.

&&

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

KSZ061-074-075-084-090115-
GRANT KS-HAMILTON KS-MORTON KS-STANTON KS-
739 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORTON...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...STANTON...SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/...

AT 738 PM CDT /638 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MANTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ULYSSES...JOHNSON CITY...MANTER AND BIG BOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 10174 3776 10153 3774 10153 3774 10150
      3748 10115 3733 10186 3752 10198
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 230DEG 33KT 3745 10187

JJOHNSON